Pakistan faces rising climate risks as study warns of extreme heat in major cities by 2050

A new climate study has raised concerns about Pakistan’s growing vulnerability to the effects of El Niño-induced climate change, warning that several of the country's major urban

LAHORE: A new climate study has raised concerns about Pakistan’s growing vulnerability to the effects of El Niño-induced climate change, warning that several of the country’s major urban centres could face significantly higher temperatures in the coming decades.

The research identifies Pakistan among the nations most exposed to climate-related risks linked to El Niño, a weather phenomenon known for disrupting global temperature and rainfall patterns. According to the study, cities such as Lahore and Faisalabad may emerge among the world’s hottest urban centres by 2050 if current warming trends continue.

Scientists involved in the research cautioned that rising temperatures could dramatically increase health risks, particularly during prolonged heatwaves. They warned that extreme heat conditions may lead to a substantial rise in heat-related illnesses and fatalities, placing additional pressure on public health systems and urban infrastructure.

The findings come as the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) continues to monitor unusually high temperatures across various parts of the country. Meteorological experts say climate change and El Niño conditions are combining to intensify heatwave events and alter traditional weather patterns.

Chief Meteorologist Lahore Dr. Zaheer Babar said increasing temperatures associated with El Niño are already being felt across Pakistan. He noted that rapid urban expansion is worsening the situation, particularly in densely populated cities where natural green spaces are shrinking.

According to climate experts, the spread of high-rise buildings, growing traffic volumes, industrial emissions and declining tree cover have contributed to the development of urban heat islands. These areas absorb and retain more heat than surrounding regions, causing temperatures to remain elevated for longer periods.

Lahore, Faisalabad and Multan have been highlighted as cities particularly vulnerable to this phenomenon. Experts warn that continued urbanisation without adequate environmental planning could make future heatwaves more intense and more frequent.

In addition to rising temperatures, researchers have expressed concern over the possibility of below-normal rainfall during the current year. Reduced precipitation could increase the risk of drought conditions, water shortages and agricultural challenges, especially in regions already facing water stress.

Environmental specialist Dr. Zulfiqar Ahmad pointed to data showing that the impact of climate change in Pakistan is exceeding global averages in some areas. While global temperatures have risen by approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, certain Pakistani cities have recorded significantly sharper increases. Research cited by the expert indicates that Karachi and Lahore have experienced particularly pronounced warming trends over recent decades.

Officials responsible for urban environmental management say efforts are underway to address the growing challenge. The Parks and Horticulture Authority (PHA) in Lahore has launched tree plantation campaigns aimed at increasing green cover and reducing urban temperatures.

According to PHA officials, housing societies are required to reserve at least seven percent of their land area for tree plantation and green spaces before obtaining mandatory regulatory approvals. Authorities believe such measures can help moderate temperatures, improve air quality and enhance climate resilience in rapidly expanding cities.

Climate specialists stress that long-term adaptation strategies will be essential to protect communities from the escalating impacts of global warming. They are urging federal and provincial governments to accelerate investments in urban forestry, sustainable city planning, water conservation and heatwave preparedness programmes.