Record October heat pushes 2026 towards second-hottest year ever

The year 2026 is likely to rank as the second-warmest year ever recorded as rising greenhouse gas emissions and an intensifying El Niño weather pattern continue to push global temperatures higher, according to the European Union's climate monitoring service.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service said on Friday that 2026 still has a 20% possibility of matching or surpassing 2024 as the hottest year on record.

The agency also warned that global temperatures are virtually certain to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels this year. The average temperature recorded between 2023 and 2026 is also expected to cross that threshold which was established under the Paris Climate Agreement to limit the most damaging effects of global warming.

According to Copernicus, October 2026 was the hottest October ever recorded with average global surface air temperatures reaching 1.75 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average measured between 1850 and 1900. It also marked the third consecutive month in which temperatures exceeded the 1.5-degree threshold.

Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) said the latest figures reflected exceptional warming across the planet and its oceans.

She added that an unusually powerful El Niño was contributing additional heat to an atmosphere already affected by human-driven climate change.

The latest assessment comes ahead of the United Nations’ two-week COP31 climate summit in Turkiye, where countries are expected to discuss measures to address the growing climate crisis. The meeting follows a year marked by devastating floods in Nepal, extreme heatwaves across Europe and major wildfires in Indonesia.

El Niño expected to intensify further

Climate forecasters have warned that the current El Niño event could become one of the strongest ever observed with its peak expected later this year.

Copernicus reported that the weather phenomenon set a record temperature in a key region of the Pacific Ocean last month.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that causes unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. It can influence weather conditions worldwide, increasing the likelihood of droughts and floods while adding to the warming caused by human activities.

Scientists believe the developing El Niño could also push global temperatures higher in 2027, potentially making it the hottest year on record.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement countries committed to keeping global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius while making efforts to restrict the increase to 1.5 degrees.

However, the United Nations warned in September that the world was likely to exceed the long-term 1.5-degree target within the coming years.

Scientists have stressed that reducing greenhouse gas emissions particularly those produced by burning fossil fuels, remains essential to limiting the duration and severity of global warming beyond the agreed threshold.