Rubio India visit tests trade ties as oil sanctions loom

The Rubio India visit reached its main stage on Tuesday, when the US secretary of state met External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar in Mumbai.

Marco Rubio arrived from Uzbekistan with a large business delegation. His trip lasts from October 17 to 22.

This is the second Rubio India visit since May. Last time, he sat down with Jaishankar and joined a Quad foreign ministers’ gathering in New Delhi.

What the Rubio India visit covers

India’s Ministry of External Affairs said the two sides would review their ties and look for ways to deepen them. The agenda lists energy, trade, investment, defence, emerging technologies and critical minerals.

During the Rubio India visit, Rubio will also act as guest of honour at a celebration of 250 years of US independence. He meets business leaders to promote commercial investment as well. After that, he heads to Jamnagar in Gujarat, where Reliance Industries runs a big refinery, to meet political and business leaders.

The ministers plan to discuss the wars in Ukraine and West Asia. They want to gauge how those conflicts hit food, fuel and fertiliser supplies.

New Delhi has floated its own idea for Ukraine. Its ceasefire framework seeks to keep key supply routes open and stop attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea.

Trade deal and Russian oil

Talks on a bilateral trade agreement continue. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal says officials have finished the first phase and are now drafting the legal text. However, he adds that India will bring it into force only after it gains a competitive edge.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman wants the deal wrapped up soon. In February, the White House outlined an interim framework on reciprocal tariffs, market access, supply chains and technology.

Russian oil is the most delicate topic. Trump recently waived parts of a sanctions law that allowed punitive tariffs on buyers of Russian crude. That step removes one source of friction for New Delhi.

Even so, the matter remains open. Within about 10 days, says US Ambassador Sergio Gor, Trump will choose whether to use sanctions powers that could hit buyers of Russian oil and gas.

India has told Washington about its worries over that law. It also stresses that national interest and market conditions shape its energy choices, and it wants steady supplies for a fast-growing economy.

Strain behind the Rubio India visit

Because of tariff threats, relations face pressure. Added to that are India’s steady purchases of Russian crude and curbs on Indian professionals who want jobs in the United States.

Meanwhile, some reports say the trade talks slowed, and officials on both sides are seeking a path that suits them. Another report says the two sides are close to a final text.

Leaders may also meet before long. Next month’s ASEAN summit in Manila and the G20 summit in Florida could give senior figures a chance to talk.

For now, the Rubio India visit shows whether both governments can turn a long list of shared goals into concrete steps on trade and energy.