Saudi–Houthi Conflict: How Will It End?

The long-standing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Shia Houthi rebels has deteriorated into open warfare. According to the latest reports, the Houthis have claimed responsibility for attacks on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. Saudi officials say three Saudi civilians were killed and several others wounded, and a Saudia aircraft was also damaged. The Saudi air force has launched retaliatory strikes. It should be recalled that the Houthis had earlier advanced along the Red Sea coast and taken control of key positions around Bab al-Mandab, after which Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces counterattacked and claimed several successes. Fighting on the ground has now begun alongside the air war. To understand the present situation, a brief look at the background is essential.

It is clear to all that Saudi Arabia is a Sunni kingdom. Despite being the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, its rulers have avoided getting entangled in religious constraints and show a real awareness of contemporary needs. They maintain moderate relations with the entire world, including the United States, and wield influence in the OIC, the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council. Iran, by contrast, has been a hardline Shia state since 1979. Real power lies, in the name of *Wilayat al-Faqih* (Guardianship of the Jurist), with a rigidly orthodox Shia clerical establishment that views the whole world through a particular religious lens. Since the revolution, this system has sought to expand its influence in other Muslim countries, especially those with Shia communities. Its opposition to Israel and the United States, and its support for Palestinian militants, are in essence aimed at winning the sympathy and backing of ordinary, unsuspecting Sunni Muslims. The real objective is the overthrow of those Arab governments that have been tied to the United States for decades for their security and protection. Saudi rulers have been the primary target.

In this context, the current fighting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is not merely a contest between two parties. It is a regional political and religious rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, one that includes destroying each other’s economy and trade. Iran’s clerical system stands firmly behind the Houthis, although the Zaydi Shias of Yemen have a long history of their own and regard Saudi Arabia as the greatest obstacle to their rule.

In 2014, during Yemen’s civil war, the Houthis seized the capital, Sana’a. In March 2015, Saudi Arabia led an Arab coalition and intervened militarily in support of Yemen’s internationally recognized government, at the request of the Yemeni president himself. Despite this prolonged war, the Houthis retained control over large parts of northern Yemen. The conflict flared up again in 2022. Saudi Arabia will not accept an armed extremist force on its southern border, hanging over its cities, airports and oil facilities like a sword, able to launch missiles and explosives whenever it chooses. The Bab al-Mandab Strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, and ships use it to carry trade between Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal. Military pressure there affects global trade, oil shipments and navigation.

Saudi Arabia’s foremost concerns now are defending its borders, protecting its cities, citizens and economy, and stopping attacks on oil refineries, tankers and supply lines. Although it has a modern air force, vast financial resources and, through its allies, ground forces as well, the Houthis have, with Iranian assistance, preserved their military capabilities through years of war. Moreover, Yemen’s protected mountain ranges, its complex terrain and the local combat experience of its fighters all obstruct any major Saudi operation. If prosperity seeks security, then people in hunger and destitution are ready to fight and die, and they become fuel for violent organizations.

The question now is what the solution to this tangled situation might be. One option is for the United States, the UN and the major powers to play a mediating role and broker a workable agreement that both sides honor. The likelihood is very low, however. Unless broader peace emerges among Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United States and Israel, how could the Iranian-backed Shia Houthi proxy be willing to make peace? The second option is for Saudi Arabia, with its allies’ help, to strengthen Yemen’s constitutional and legitimate government enough to crush the rebels. The problem remains, though: how can this resistance movement be eliminated entirely in Yemen’s inland mountain regions? Ultimately, putting boots on the ground would mean heavy bloodshed, a risk no one wants to take. Therefore, only after Houthi military power has been broken as far as possible, and the resistance has weakened, could the prospect of a peace agreement arise. But if Iran’s clerical system itself weakens and falls, the Houthis too will lose their strength. A deeper truth is that, for peace and security across the region, one of the two, Iran or Saudi Arabia, will have to be subdued or brought to its knees. It also remains to be decided whether real power in the present age lies in strong militaries or strong economies.

“Without the dollar, Moses’ staff is of no use.”