Shehbaz govt outlasts political forecasts

Since the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)-led coalition assumed power following the February 2024 general elections, political commentators, television

ISLAMABAD: More than two years after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s coalition government took office, repeated predictions about its imminent collapse have yet to materialize, even as fresh deadlines continue to dominate Pakistan’s political debate.

Since the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)-led coalition assumed power following the February 2024 general elections, political commentators, television analysts, and social media personalities have frequently forecast the government’s downfall. The expected timelines have varied—from 90 days to six months and beyond—but each prediction has ultimately passed without bringing the anticipated political change.

Over time, different events have been presented as potential turning points, including IMF reviews, the federal budget, economic challenges, coalition disagreements, opposition campaigns, and speculation surrounding Pakistan’s political establishment. As one deadline expired, another quickly emerged, keeping the narrative alive despite the government’s continued survival.

The latest claim suggests the government has been given six months to create new provinces. However, constitutional experts argue that such a proposal is highly unlikely within that timeframe. Under Pakistan’s Constitution, altering provincial boundaries requires a constitutional amendment approved by a two-thirds majority in both houses of Parliament as well as the consent of the relevant provincial assembly. Given the current political landscape and the absence of broad political consensus, analysts believe such a move faces significant constitutional and political hurdles.

Political observers note that earlier forecasts were largely driven by concerns that the coalition lacked the strength to withstand inflation, IMF-linked reforms, and mounting economic pressures. Yet the government has managed to navigate successive economic and political challenges, prompting critics to repeatedly revise their predictions rather than abandon them.

Speculation has also been fueled by statements from several political figures and commentators who have periodically hinted at major political developments or institutional changes. Although such claims have often generated widespread public discussion, none of the predicted political upheavals have occurred.

In recent weeks, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has intensified its criticism of the federal government, particularly amid growing tensions with its coalition partner during the Azad Jammu and Kashmir election campaign. While the PPP has adopted a tougher political tone, analysts caution that electoral rhetoric and coalition disagreements do not necessarily signal the immediate collapse of the federal government.

Rumors about possible alternatives to the current leadership have also surfaced repeatedly. Claims that a new political figure was being prepared to replace Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, along with speculation about the removal of senior cabinet members, have circulated over the past year. However, none of those predictions have been borne out by subsequent developments.

Analysts say the recurring cycle of political forecasts reflects a broader trend in Pakistan’s political discourse, where speculation often outpaces reality. While acknowledging that every government faces political and economic challenges, they note that repeated predictions of the coalition’s imminent fall have consistently failed to match events on the ground, leaving each passing deadline followed by yet another countdown.