Strait of control

The military campaign which started with a clear-cut aim of a regime change in Iran; with opening salvos at Pasteur Steet residence in central Tehran of the supreme leader; was meant to precipitate a regime change like the one witnessed in Romania in 1989, in Iraq after the US invasion in 2003 and also in Afghanistan in 2001. The targeting of the top tier was unprecedented in the modern military history where the government or regime figures were targeted without any qualms; March 1, 2026.

Friday, August 28, 2026; gone are the declared aim of the regime change in Iran as the sole aim of the military campaign. The biggest question mark is who controls the strait and invariably the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf and into the international market channels. Given the fact that the actual happenings being reported can be classified as the biggest casualty in any military conflict, no one knows; whose Navy is actually in control of the Strait; the USN or the IRGCN. The world is more or less being fed on the psychological warfare waged by the warring parties. 

The end result of the attrition between the two navies is however being felt by all the concerned; the users of oil as the energy source in industry, everyday life and above all in the economies whose calculations have been rudely challenged by the continued conflict in the Persian Gulf. The news rooms, despite the fact that on ground not much is happening in the conflict point have to keep the tabs so that the market analysts need to be updated for the forecast of which way the conflict is going and how it is going to hit the global economic calculations. 

As a matter of fact, it is a known fact that the President of the United States is meticulously advised how much fire he needs to put in into his statements so that the markets are not rattled by the conflict. Many Iranians painfully point out that the fateful strikes on the morning of February 28’ 2026 were preceded by ‘all in well’ statements by the POTUS to create an impression that everything is under control; that the markets were fine as the deal was about to inked formally between United States and Iran. That precise environment was the smoke screen which precipitated the March 2026 round of the Iran-US conflict. 

Back to the issue of who controls the strait or more precisely the global economy, a probe deep into the facts available illustrates that the closure of the strait of Hormuz has been the integral part of the Iranian military paradigm, whether it has been the pro US Shah or the regime which controls Iran after February 1979. Many students of history might find it in the archives that at the height of the US Mission Hostage crisis, a seemingly moderate foreign minister of the provisional government Sadeq Qotabzadeh threatened the closure of the gulf as part of Iranian military strategy. During the eight years long war with Iraq (read Arab League) the open status of the strait was one of the preoccupations of both the Iranians and the Arab opponents. Iraq was armed on the insistence of US by France a medium range support aircraft Super Etendard equipped with Exocet missiles to hit any Iranian gunboat seeking to obstruct Arab League maintained oil tankers. Ironically in 1987 one such Iraqi Air force marking jet hit the USS Stark resulting in the killing of 37 US servicemen.

Fast forward to August 2026; the US led global economy has a stake in getting the MOU or JCPOA back on the track. They were successful in getting the Iranian reformists on their side, however the radicals’ takeover of the decision making on the back of seemingly proactive young supreme leader seems to have disrupted the calculations. The US thrust without any inhibition has been a pressure campaign coupled with a few incentives. In one single day, the US put five IRGC members names on the wanted list; yet at the same time sent the Pakistani CDF to Tehran to offer the proverbial ‘carrot’ while the stick has been already shown. 

The US wants the status quo restored of what it lost in the aftermath of what can be called a failed regime change bid in Iran. It is ironic again to mention that in the closing days of December 2025 and opening week of January 2026, it was generally flashed in the international media on the authority of the late Shah of Iran son that the holy city of Mashad has fallen to anti clerical regime forces. However, the July 2026 funeral of the slain supreme leader in the same city was categorized as the largest one in the city history. 

Given the ground situation, where the Pakistani efforts despite controlled; ‘leaked stories’ or ‘desktop planted stories’ that a breakthrough is excepted have not yielded any tangible results; the conflict with all probability is not expected to wind down as the ‘controlled media’ might want the viewers to believe into. The reasons emanate from the stances of the matter of fact Russian and Chinese establishments. The Russians have been approached in the context of the final showdown with the Iranians by the US, but the responses seem to be not of US liking. Similarly, the Chinese have comedown heavily in support of the Iranians, calling the economic blockade completely unjustified.

Furthermore, the reformist hold on the control of events seems to be on wane and the same is reflected in the stances taken by the US during the last. It is easy to relate, if the POTUS is confident, he has the communication with the reformists, if he is frustrated; the radicals have the upper hand. Moving forward the battle for the strait of Hormuz as generally perceived in the tilted international media might not be the ‘real story’ but an opening salvo.

There are ample chances of a conflict, if not a complete all-out war, but structured military campaigns aimed at control of either of the parties. Here it may be pointed that as per the unconfirmed reports, the Iranians have prevailed upon the Omanis on two counts, the legal control of the strait as well as physical tightening of the southern flank of the strait which touches the Omani waters. It remains to be seen how the US will react to that. However, moving forwards there seems to be more trouble for the onlooking public in the form of increased energy prices rates; and of course an all-out conflict graduating from a long attrition.