El Niño may intensify and continue into 2027

The El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen further and continue into early 2027, increasing the threat of extreme weather events

The El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen further and continue into early 2027, increasing the threat of extreme weather events around the world, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.

The UN weather agency said there is almost a 100% probability that the phenomenon will remain active through February 2027. The development is being driven by unusually high sea-surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean.

A stronger El Niño can disrupt normal weather patterns across several regions. It can alter rainfall and temperatures and increase the likelihood of severe storms, droughts, floods and powerful tropical cyclones.

The phenomenon occurs when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than normal. It is linked to weakening trade winds and naturally develops every two to seven years. An El Niño event can typically last for several months and, in some cases, around a year.

Its effects are felt far beyond the Pacific region. Changes in atmospheric circulation can bring excessive rainfall to some areas while leaving others unusually dry. Latin American countries are particularly vulnerable to major shifts in rainfall during strong El Niño episodes.

The current event has already affected agricultural production in tropical regions. Parts of Central America’s Dry Corridor are facing severe food insecurity, with changing weather conditions placing additional pressure on crops and livelihoods.

The WMO expects the current El Niño to reach its strongest point toward the end of 2026. Its intensification has prompted authorities and humanitarian organisations to increase preparations for possible weather-related emergencies.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the changing climate is creating increasingly uncertain conditions, while stressing the importance of scientific monitoring and early action.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the organisation is strengthening preparedness and early-warning measures.

She said timely climate information would be important for disaster management and for sectors that are highly sensitive to weather conditions, including agriculture, healthcare, energy and water supplies.