G20 foreign ministers meet in Atlanta amid Iran, Ukraine rifts

On Friday, Marco Rubio hosts the G20 foreign ministers in Atlanta, where wars in Ukraine and Iran and energy prices cloud the talks.

Their gathering falls days ahead of the American midterm vote. It also paves the way for a leaders’ summit in December at Doral, Trump’s resort in Miami.

Few breakthroughs expected from G20 foreign ministers

Officials expect few breakthroughs among the economies, a group that spans China, India, Russia, Japan, Germany and France. Splits over Moscow’s war on Ukraine and the fallout from the Iran conflict block the way.

One diplomatic source said the G20 is no longer a forum where foreign ministers can agree on a statement. Likely no final declaration will emerge from the G20 foreign ministers, and the source expects no joint text. The United States will draft a chair summary instead.

The US presidency wants the Miami summit to act “as a demonstration of American power” rather than a summit with grand ambitions on substance, the source added. Washington hands the rotating leadership to Britain after this year.

Washington says the group has strayed from its core mission. It promised to steer the grouping back to economic growth, and it said that security and prosperity are “inextricably linked.”

Lavrov joins the G20 foreign ministers

Russian state media said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had already arrived in Atlanta. Most of the West has shunned Russia since its 2022 invasion, and sanctions still apply to Lavrov personally.

Lavrov will argue against sanctions, Alisha Chhangani of the Atlantic Council said, and that should irritate European ministers. Still, Russian officials have found a welcome at G20 events this year, whereas South Africa, a member, faced exclusion. Trump has also invited Vladimir Putin to Miami.

The diplomatic source insisted that Russia’s attendance gives its actions no legitimacy. Rubio’s encounter with Lavrov will draw close attention, since Washington pursues diplomacy on Ukraine and wants Moscow’s help to rein in fuel prices.

New talks between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington are due in November. Trump recently relaxed some sanctions on Moscow, and he has promoted a plan under which Russia sells diesel.

Energy and the Strait of Hormuz

Energy prices worldwide have soared because Tehran blocked the Strait of Hormuz after US-Israeli strikes began in late February. At the Atlanta talks, energy and supply chain strains will come up, a State Department official said.

That official stressed the importance of energy access for technology such as artificial intelligence. It also pointed to a shared resolve to keep critical sea lanes open without threats or tolls.

Chhangani called the meeting “the last test case” for the G20 under the US presidency until Miami. She expects Washington to make the case that shocks to security hit economies too.

Expect Washington to push for common ground on what navigation freedom means around Hormuz and elsewhere. Beijing could object, as it opposed similar wording on free navigation at an earlier finance ministers’ meeting.

Absences and wider tension

Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, will skip the event and send a deputy. Brazil’s foreign minister will be present, and all eyes will watch US engagement with Brazil after Washington let Flavio Bolsonaro enter the country following his election defeat.

Tension in the Middle East keeps rising, as Israel threatened to strike Iran. Trump, meanwhile, has signalled he could attack after Tuesday’s midterm vote.

For now, the G20 foreign ministers meet in Atlanta without a joint declaration in sight, and the outcome will shape the December summit.