Hezbollah pledge to skip Iran war faces doubts in Lebanon

A Hezbollah pledge to stay out of any renewed Iran war has drawn doubt in Lebanon, where officials question whether it will last.

Reports say the group told Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri that it would not join a new fight between Iran and the United States. Berri passed that position to the president, according to sources close to him and the presidency.

Why the Hezbollah pledge raises doubts

Officials told one regional paper that the stated reason, the national interest, is notable. However, they said it does not remove their worries. They warned that the position could change with events on the battlefield.

They also recalled an earlier promise that collapsed within 48 hours during the March conflict. Hezbollah joined that war on March 2.

Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah said the decision is Lebanese, and Tehran does not dictate it. A Hezbollah parliamentary source also told another outlet that the group puts Lebanon’s stability first.

That source declined to confirm that the group promised Berri anything. In the source’s words, “the final word belongs to the battlefield.”

Pressure from Hezbollah’s own supporters

Dread of a new, ruinous war with Israel is stirring unrest among the group’s supporters. Opponents say the frustration is hard to contain. Israeli threats against Beirut’s southern suburbs add to it, along with worries that as many as one million Shiites might have to flee.

Anger has grown since the last war. Israeli troops moved into some 60 southern towns and villages, and razed another 20. Many residents cannot return, so they have rebuilt their working and school lives elsewhere.

Nada, 48, spent three months in a Beirut shelter with her children during that war. She says her family cannot go through displacement again.

People who know Hezbollah’s internal debates said that worry about Israel’s reaction explains the delay in striking back. Israeli attacks and demolitions in the south continue. They said preventing fresh displacement now ranks first.

Iran’s position on the Hezbollah pledge

Lebanese parliamentary sources said Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh visited Beirut. He reportedly told Hezbollah and Amal lawmakers that Tehran would not ask the group to join another war, and that Iran can defend itself.

However, the Iranian Embassy in Lebanon denied media reports about his visit on Saturday. That denial casts doubt on the account.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian favours renewed diplomacy. He blamed the US for wrecking a previous deal, yet urged that talks restart.

Rebuilding and Lebanon’s efforts

A news agency report says Hezbollah has used the last three months to get ready for possible renewed combat. Lebanese security officials told it that Tehran sent tens of millions of dollars. The group is rebuilding command structures that collapsed in earlier battles.

Stocks of weapons and fighters have not yet recovered fully, the report said. Hezbollah also acknowledged this month that it owned the explosives Lebanese authorities seized. It meant them for explosive drones against Israel.

Lebanon is watching Israel’s election and the US midterms on November 3, since new strikes on Iran could follow. Advisers to the president, the prime minister and the speaker are consulting each other, and Berri has urged Hezbollah to stay out of any wider war.

For now, the Hezbollah pledge offers Lebanon some comfort. Few expect the Hezbollah pledge to hold, however, if a new Iran war breaks out.