IMF warns AI could reshape 40% of global jobs

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that artificial intelligence (AI) could significantly reshape the global job market, affecting around 40% of jobs through automation, changes in responsibilities or the elimination of certain roles. However, rising investment in AI infrastructure is also helping sustain global economic growth at around 3%, with several Asian economies expected to benefit substantially.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday that growing investment in AI was generating fresh demand and accelerating economic activity despite the pressure caused by energy supply disruptions. Speaking at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, she said the technology was already transforming industries and changing how people work and live.

According to Georgieva, AI investment could increase growth in advanced Asian economies by 0.5 to 1 percentage point, while emerging Asian economies could see gains ranging from 0.2 to 0.8 percentage points. Countries involved in manufacturing and supplying the hardware required for AI infrastructure are particularly well positioned to benefit.

She described AI as a major force that could reshape employment, education, economic growth and government revenue systems. As businesses increasingly rely on technology and automation, the shift from labour towards capital could also create new challenges for workers and policymakers.

Georgieva noted that routine and repetitive jobs were already facing pressure as companies adopted AI-based systems. At the same time, employment opportunities were expanding in some lower-paying sectors, including construction and data centres, highlighting the uneven effects of technological change.

World Bank President Ajay Banga said AI could also offer significant opportunities for developing economies. He highlighted the potential of smaller, specialised AI applications to improve productivity in agriculture, healthcare and education without relying entirely on large language models.

Singaporean President Tharman Shanmugaratnam warned that the growing use of AI was reducing demand for some entry-level positions, particularly jobs traditionally available to fresh graduates. He said governments needed to respond quickly to ensure young people could secure their first jobs and develop the skills required for long-term careers.

Shanmugaratnam also cautioned that the benefits of AI could be distributed unevenly across the world. Without effective policies, advanced economies could move further ahead of developing countries in economic growth and job creation.

He urged governments to use AI to create productive employment opportunities and help workers advance professionally as technology becomes more widespread. The challenge for policymakers, he said, is to ensure that AI supports human capabilities rather than deepening existing economic and employment gaps.

The IMF is expected to release an updated global economic outlook on Tuesday. Its July forecast projected global growth of 3% for 2026, with the latest assessment set to provide further insight into the impact of investment, energy pressures and technological change on the world economy.