Israel election results: Netanyahu falls short of parliamentary majority

TEL AVIV: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a major political challenge after preliminary election results showed his alliance struggling to secure a majority in the 120-member Knesset, raising uncertainty over who will form the country’s next government.

With approximately 90% of the votes counted, Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to win 53 seats, while opposition parties could secure 48, according to figures reported on Thursday. Arab political groups are expected to hold a combined 19 seats, potentially making them influential in negotiations over the next government.

The reported projections suggest that Netanyahu’s Likud party remains the largest individual party, with 26 seats. However, its position may not be enough to guarantee another term in power, as the formation of a government depends on the ability to secure support from other parliamentary groups.

The Arab parties’ potential parliamentary strength could become particularly significant. The Joint List is projected to win 12 seats, while the United Arab List is expected to secure seven. Despite their numbers, both major political blocs face difficulties in bringing Arab parties into a governing coalition.

Netanyahu’s hardline allies lose ground

The preliminary results also point to losses for Netanyahu’s hardline allies, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

Their parties, which have strongly supported Israel’s military operations in Gaza, previously held a combined 20 seats in parliament. The latest projections suggest that figure could fall to 13, weakening the position of two prominent figures within Netanyahu’s political camp.

Meanwhile, former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot’s new Yashar party is projected to win 21 seats, emerging as a significant force in the opposition camp.

Parties associated with opposition leader Yair Lapid and former prime minister Naftali Bennett are collectively expected to secure another 12 seats, according to the reported figures.

Opposition claims voters rejected Netanyahu

Eisenkot has claimed that the public mandate is against Netanyahu, signalling the opposition’s intention to challenge the prime minister’s continued leadership.

He also warned Netanyahu against using the Israeli military for political purposes, highlighting the growing political tensions surrounding the election outcome.

However, the preliminary figures do not automatically establish who will become prime minister. Negotiations among parties and their willingness to cooperate will be crucial in determining the final outcome.

High turnout adds another dimension

Voter turnout reportedly reached 78%, with Arab citizens of Israel participating in significant numbers. Their votes appear to have strengthened the parliamentary position of Arab political groups, potentially giving them greater influence in the post-election process.

Israel uses a proportional representation system in which voters cast ballots for political parties rather than individual constituency candidates. Seats in the Knesset are distributed according to parties’ share of the vote, making coalition-building essential for most governments.

In 2021, Bennett included an Arab party in his governing coalition, demonstrating that such cooperation is possible, although political obstacles remain in the current contest.

With the final results still pending, Netanyahu’s Likud remains the largest party in the reported projections, but his alliance appears short of a majority. The coming coalition negotiations will determine whether he can remain in power or whether opposition parties can assemble an alternative government.