Midterm elections: Has Donald Trump lost his popularity?

The war against Iran has plunged Washington into a crisis that extends far beyond the military arena. As a result of this crisis, American power is on the decline; meanwhile, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait has confronted US President Donald Trump and his Republican Party with severe challenges ahead of the upcoming election. The Trump administration is currently making strenuous efforts to contain the conflict with Iran to a manageable level, even as the crisis continues to escalate day by day. Diesel and petrol prices were already rising worldwide—particularly in the United States—due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and now the military advance of Yemen’s Ansarullah towards the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait has further compounded America’s difficulties. On the other hand, the US midterm elections are also drawing near; they are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Thus, Donald Trump is undergoing a severe test. In the upcoming election, voting will take place for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. The question now arises: will the US President—who appears determined to persist with a policy based on projecting military power and exerting military pressure on Iran—be able to manage the escalating costs of war, the economic hardships facing the public, and widespread discontent by Election Day? Trump’s public approval rating has fallen to just 33 percent, while public support for a war against Iran has also dropped to the 31 percent level. The American public is deeply concerned about the prolonged war, indicating that this conflict is no longer merely a matter of foreign policy but has become an issue that directly impacts the election. Research conducted by Brookings indicates that during the war, Iran launched hundreds of air strikes against U.S. military bases in the region, causing them severe damage. Thus, the myth that America’s military bases and navy were secure from enemy attacks has come to an end in this war. On the other hand, US weapons stockpiles have also been severely depleted, and massive expenditure is required to replenish them. At present, the US military bases and allied nations in the region have become a liability rather than an asset, and there is a grave risk of further losses should any new conflict arise. Under these circumstances, Donald Trump is strongly shying away from a new military adventure against Iran. Ansarullah’s rapid military advance in Yemen, along with the Houthis’ seizure of coastal areas adjacent to the Bab al-Mandab Strait and islands in the Red Sea, has landed the United States in a new dilemma. Yemen’s Ansarullah has established full military control over areas of strategic importance, such as the city of Mocha and Mayun Island. It should be noted that the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb is considered the second most important artery for global energy trade, after the Strait of Hormuz. The simultaneous closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait could deal a severe blow to global energy trade. Similarly, Yemen’s Ansarullah has initiated a campaign of targeting Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil facilities in response to the Kingdom’s military aggression, severely impacting its oil export capabilities. In such circumstances, the real issue is not whether the United States can embark on a new military adventure; rather, the core problem is strategic indecision and confusion, as it remains unclear whether any future military undertaking would actually enhance the security of U.S. military bases and allied nations in the region. Similarly, it remains unclear whether this will lead to the lifting of the blockades on the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, thereby allowing the trade and transport of energy products to return to normal. When a war results in the depletion of weapons stockpiles, the destruction of U.S. military bases in the region, and an apparent widening of the crisis, one reality becomes clear: the decline of American military power. This is not merely a political claim; ground realities bear eloquent testimony to it. Midterm elections in the United States have currently become a nightmare for the Republican Party. These elections are approaching at a time when the consequences of a war with Iran are directly affecting the economic well-being of American citizens. Therefore, if this war drags on, Trump and the leaders of the Republican Party will have to answer to the American public regarding rising daily expenses. Trump’s pledge to provide several thousand dollars in aid to every elderly American citizen is not merely an election-related promise; it is, in fact, an attempt to counter the political repercussions of the war with Iran. Since the conflict involving Iran has increased economic pressure on American voters, Donald Trump is attempting to alleviate this strain; however, this tactic does not appear to be working.