Nobel committee weighs how to handle Trump’s shadow ahead of October 9 announcement

President Donald Trump will not win this year’s Nobel Peace Prize given his administration’s ongoing war with Iran, but experts say his influence will still shape which candidate the Norwegian Nobel Committee ultimately selects when it announces the winner on October 9.

Last year’s prize, awarded to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, stood out in the award’s 125 year history after Trump repeatedly lobbied for the honor himself. Weeks after receiving it, Machado handed her gold Nobel medal to Trump in what was widely seen as an attempt to win his continued support for her push toward democratic change in Venezuela. Nobel laureate and journalist Maria Ressa said she watched that episode unfold with horror, according to comments cited by the wire agency covering this year’s selection process.

Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, said the five member committee will likely weigh last year’s events carefully as it deliberates this time around. He said one concern facing the committee is whether honoring a particular candidate could expose that person to direct pressure from Trump, adding that members are likely to consider whether the award ultimately does more harm than good for whoever receives it.

That calculus could point toward a handful of leading contenders, according to experts tracking this year’s selection: Pope Leo, the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, or Francesca Albanese, the United Nations special rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories. Leo, the first American born pope, has said he intends to keep speaking out against war after Trump publicly called him weak for criticizing the US conflict with Iran. His recent encyclical on artificial intelligence, his calls for peaceful conflict resolution and dialogue, his advocacy for migrants, and his broader humanitarian work have all been cited as reasons he could merit consideration. Karim Haggag, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said the pope has become more than a religious figure, describing him as a leading thought leader on the world stage.

Albanese has drawn criticism from both the United States and Israel over her condemnation of Israel’s conduct in its war against Hamas in Gaza and its continued occupation of the West Bank, positioning her as another candidate whose selection would carry clear political weight. Haggag said the committee faces real pressure to take a firm stance against Trump this year, arguing that the current international moment calls for a prize that defends liberal democracy, international law and human rights.

At the same time, experts noted the opposite dynamic remains possible. Given how dramatically last year’s selection played out, the committee could instead opt for a safer, less controversial recipient specifically to avoid antagonizing Trump further, who has previously blamed Norway, where the prize is decided, for denying him the award in past years.

Trump himself has reportedly been nominated for this year’s prize by the leaders of Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan, though Gjerloew said his actual chances of winning remain quite low given the ongoing Iran conflict.

The debate over this year’s likely winner reflects a broader tension the Nobel committee has faced in recent cycles, balancing its stated mission of honoring work that advances peace and human rights against the reality that any selection involving a sitting US president’s rivals or critics now risks becoming entangled in that president’s own reaction. With the announcement just over a week away, the committee’s choice is likely to be read as closely for what it signals about handling pressure from Washington as for the recipient’s own record on peace and human rights.