OPEC+ December output stays flat as Gulf producers lag quotas

OPEC+ December output targets will stay unchanged, as the alliance pauses policy changes while Gulf producers still pump below their quotas.

Three people with knowledge of the matter said the group agreed in principle on the hold ahead of an online meeting on Sunday. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity.

Who sat in on the OPEC+ December output hold

The alliance combines the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with allied producers such as Russia. Seven core members met on the call, which started at 1200 GMT. They are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.

The outcome matches expectations that further policy changes will wait until next year. That makes a third straight month of steady targets for the OPEC+ December output. The alliance had also kept targets steady for October and November.

Back in July, sources said the group would probably make no changes in the fourth quarter. Its focus has moved to 2027 quota negotiations since then.

Why Gulf producers fall short of OPEC+ December output targets

Gulf members have been lifting exports that the US-Iran war disrupted for months. Even so, most of them still pump well below their targets.

What happened to earlier cuts

Much of 2026 saw the group lifting targets. In September, it finished unwinding a supply cut of 1.65 million barrels per day, which Saudi Arabia led with surprise voluntary reductions in April 2023.

A 188,000 barrel per day increase for September closed out another layer of voluntary cuts. From April through July, the seven core members lifted quotas by almost 800,000 barrels per day.

One more layer of cuts, around 2 million barrels per day for most members, runs through the end of 2026.

OPEC+ December output hold shifts focus to 2027

With the OPEC+ December output settled, the group now looks ahead. A review of members’ production capacity must wrap up before the year ends.

That review fixes the 2027 baselines, which in turn determine future quotas and shape how the remaining cuts unwind. The full group is scheduled to gather on November 29 to settle the 2027 framework.

Prices stay high

The decision lands while fuel prices stay high in the US. Regular gasoline averages $4.1837 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association, while diesel sits at $6.3101.

Diesel now stands just 3.3 percent under its record of $6.5276, which it hit on September 22. On Friday, Brent crude climbed above $113 a barrel, a gain of nearly 11 percent in a month and about 75 percent in a year.

Brent now sits within 3 percent of its four-year peak of $116.72. On Friday, October 30, prices rose over 2 percent as traders braced for possible escalation in the Iran war. Gulf members keep recovering exports even though they have not yet reached their quotas. Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad, said “Today’s decision was the easy one.” He added that the much bigger test comes at the November 29 meeting.