Provinces game: Is London cooking new political deal?

The picture emerging on the surface is intriguing: the establishment wants new provinces. Imran Khan may eventually be persuaded to go along. The PML-N does not want Punjab divided, but appears to lack the political muscle to resist. Reports suggest Nawaz Sharif has told his party to remain silent and wait for its coalition partner, the PPP, to make the move.

The PPP, however, is unlikely to accept the division of Sindh so easily. The question is so politically explosive that perhaps even Asif Ali Zardari cannot make the decision alone. And that may explain, at least politically, his quiet departure for London.

Officially, Zardari is there for a routine medical check-up. His health, admittedly, has not been ideal. But he has also met Mohsin Naqvi, who is in London amid Pakistan cricket’s successive defeats and the need to take further decisions on the country’s cricket affairs. Naqvi is widely regarded as a close representative of Pakistan’s powerful establishment and arguably the most influential figure in the current hybrid civilian arrangement.

Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar is also in London, and a meeting with Zardari is reportedly expected.

Perhaps a bigger political stew is being cooked in London. After all, in Pakistan, some of the most consequential political decisions have historically been shaped far from home.

The crucial question is: Could the establishment strike a deal with Imran Khan over the creation of new provinces?

That would be difficult for both sides. Neither the establishment nor Khan trusts the other.

The PTI has announced a long march for September 27. Its political posture in the coming days will reveal much: is the march genuinely aimed at Khan’s release, pressure on the establishment and restoration of democratic supremacy or is it ultimately intended to bring down the already fragile civilian government?

If the latter emerges, another possibility becomes difficult to dismiss: that the party leadership outside prison is being used, willingly or otherwise, to pressure the civilian setup into accepting an establishment-backed formula on new provinces rather than making Khan’s release its central objective.

At present, the establishment may be working on two fronts simultaneously: increasing pressure through PTI on one side and attempting to bring Zardari on board on the other.

And if provinces are indeed the objective, the endgame could be much bigger: a technocratic or nominal “national government,” backed by a powerful presidency modeled partly on the American system, giving the real power centre a more direct grip over the state.

Who would occupy that presidency? In the current political conversation, few would claim not to know. As journalist Cyril Almeida suggested in the context: “If ‘he’ gets his provinces, he’s never going.”

But the biggest obstacle remains Zardari. He is an old political player. Yet whatever his critics may say, the PPP today lacks the mass political strength it once possessed. Opposing the division of Sindh, however, could give the party an opportunity to consolidate itself in the province. Sindhi nationalists would almost certainly find common ground with it on this issue.

Perhaps the establishment has a lucrative package for Zardari: interior Sindh for the PPP, a new South Punjab province potentially within its political sphere, and, if Balochistan is divided, one or perhaps both new provinces within its influence. That could potentially give the PPP a stake in governing 40 to 50 percent of the country except Karachi.

And therein lies the real problem.

How does the PPP walk away from Karachi’s enormous economic weight?

There could also be a promise of making Zardari’s son prime minister.

Zardari’s political career of more than three decades has demonstrated his willingness to compromise when political survival demands it. He also understands the power of establishment perhaps better than most politicians.

But can he agree to divide his birthplace, the land of Sindh, the land of Sufis?

That is the frightening question.

A similar nightmare once confronted Mahatma Gandhi. He resisted the partition of the subcontinent until the very end, but ultimately found himself unable to stop a political reality that had acquired a momentum of its own.

Could Zardari face a similar moment?

Perhaps he will refuse.

But Pakistan’s history offers a sobering lesson: when the establishment has been determined to achieve something, resistance has rarely proved enough to stop it.

And if new provinces are ultimately created and Sindh is placed on the chopping block, Zardari may find himself in the position of Gandhi.