SASSI experts identify Bushehr as main nuclear fallout concern for Gulf Region

A new report by SASSI University has challenged viral claims that attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities could send radioactive clouds across Pakistan and Afghanistan describing the widely circulated map as misleading and unsupported by scientific evidence.

ISLAMABAD: A new report by SASSI University has challenged viral claims that attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities could send radioactive clouds across Pakistan and Afghanistan describing the widely circulated map as misleading and unsupported by scientific evidence.

Titled “Smoke and Mirrors: An Attack on Iranian Nuclear Facilities” the report has been authored by Muhammad Khaliq former head of the Nuclear Security Section at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Dr Maria Sultan president and chairperson of SASSI University.

The authors argue that assessing potential radioactive fallout requires facility-specific information including the type of nuclear material involved the extent of damage weather conditions and the nature of an attack. They say the viral map does not provide the scientific data or dispersion modelling needed to support its claims.

According to the report the Natanz and Fordow enrichment facilities do not contain the same radioactive inventory as an operating nuclear power reactor. The authors assess the likelihood of significant cross-border fallout from damage to these sites as low.

The IAEA reported that radiation levels outside Natanz remained at normal levels following the June 2025 attacks although radiological and chemical contamination was identified inside the facility. The agency also reported no increase in off-site radiation following the wider strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

The report describes potential consequences at Isfahan as primarily localised while research reactors mining operations heavy-water facilities and centrifuge plants are assessed as presenting limited or no risk of transboundary radioactive fallout.

The report identifies the Bushehr nuclear power plant as the only Iranian facility with the potential to cause serious cross-border radiological consequences in the event of a severe accident.

Unlike uranium enrichment facilities Bushehr is an operating nuclear power plant containing irradiated fuel and radioactive fission products. However, the authors stress that damage to the plant would not automatically result in a major radioactive release. Such an outcome would depend on the severity of the damage and the failure of critical safety systems.

The IAEA has also identified Bushehr as a major regional nuclear safety concern, warning that a serious accident there could have consequences beyond Iran’s borders. The report further argues that an attack on Bushehr would carry serious regional implications potentially affecting several Gulf countries.

Addressing speculation about the possible use of nuclear weapons against Iran the authors describe such a scenario as an extreme hypothetical rather than a realistic assumption.

They conclude that claims about radioactive fallout reaching Pakistan should not be accepted without reliable facility-specific information and scientific modelling.

The report urges the public to rely on verified technical assessments rather than alarming maps and unsubstantiated predictions stressing that nuclear safety concerns require careful scientific evaluation.