UN warns strong El Niño likely to trigger extreme weather in coming months

The United Nations weather agency has warned that El Niño is expected to strengthen rapidly between July and September.

The United Nations weather agency has warned that El Niño is expected to strengthen rapidly between July and September, raising concerns about severe weather conditions in many parts of the world. According to the World Meteorological Organization, the climate pattern has already developed in the Pacific Ocean and is likely to become a strong event over the next few months. Governments and communities have been urged to prepare for its possible impact on weather, agriculture, health, and economies.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that causes sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean to become warmer than normal. This warming affects global weather systems by changing wind patterns, air pressure, and rainfall. The event usually appears every two to seven years and can continue for around nine to twelve months before conditions return to normal or shift to its opposite phase known as La Niña.

The latest seasonal climate update issued by the WMO suggests that the current El Niño will strengthen quickly during the July to September period. Scientists expect it to reach the strong category, making it one of the more powerful events on the agency’s four level classification scale. Forecasts from leading climate centers around the world show consistent signs of rising ocean temperatures, giving experts greater confidence in their predictions.

According to the WMO, sea surface temperatures in important monitoring areas of the Pacific are expected to rise by more than two degrees Celsius above average. Experts believe this increase will contribute to more frequent and intense weather extremes in different regions. The effects are expected to become even more noticeable during the Northern Hemisphere autumn as the climate pattern continues to grow stronger.

The agency warned that stronger El Niño conditions increase the risk of drought in some countries while bringing unusually heavy rainfall to others. Heatwaves over land and in the oceans are also expected to become more common. These changing weather patterns could create serious challenges for farming, water supplies, and public health, particularly in areas already vulnerable to climate related disasters.

The WMO noted that the last El Niño played a major role in making 2023 the second hottest year ever recorded. Global temperatures climbed even higher in 2024, reaching around 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels. Although El Niño usually reaches its highest intensity between November and February, its impact on global temperatures often continues well beyond that period.

WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said early warning systems and seasonal forecasts are essential to reduce the impact of extreme weather. She stressed that accurate information allows governments and communities to prepare in advance and protect lives and livelihoods.

The latest outlook also predicts above average temperatures across most populated regions of the world during the July to September period. Rainfall is expected to increase in parts of the southwestern United States, while below normal rainfall is likely across the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia.

The WMO clarified that there is no evidence climate change makes El Niño happen more often or become stronger. However, it believes rising global temperatures can increase the severity of its impacts because warmer oceans and air provide more energy and moisture for events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.