US-Iran deal could make IRGC biggest winner

TEHRAN: As Washington and Tehran prepare for a new round of negotiations aimed at transforming a fragile wartime truce into a lasting agreement, analysts say one of the biggest beneficiaries could be Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), whose vast business empire spans key sectors of the country’s economy.

The emerging framework for a potential US-Iran deal is designed to ease tensions, revive economic activity, and potentially unlock billions of dollars in investment and trade. However, the prospect of sanctions relief has sparked debate over whether the financial gains could strengthen an organization that remains designated as a terrorist group by the United States and several Western allies.

For decades, the IRGC has built a powerful economic network operating across oil, construction, telecommunications, shipping, logistics, and infrastructure projects. The organization expanded its commercial influence during years of international sanctions, developing alternative trade channels and gaining control over strategic industries.

According to senior Iranian officials and political observers, the Guards are uniquely positioned to benefit from any easing of sanctions because of their deep involvement in the country’s economic structure.

A broader agreement could grant Iran access to frozen assets, increased oil exports, foreign investment, and a proposed reconstruction fund worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Experts believe many of these opportunities could flow through sectors where IRGC-linked companies already hold significant influence.

At the center of the Guards’ economic strength is Khatam al-Anbia, its engineering and construction arm, which oversees numerous companies involved in major infrastructure, energy, transportation, and development projects throughout Iran.

Economic analysts note that foreign investors returning to Iran may find it difficult to avoid partnerships with businesses connected to the IRGC due to the group’s extensive presence across the economy. This could create legal and compliance challenges for international firms, particularly if certain sanctions remain in place even after a broader diplomatic agreement.

Despite those concerns, supporters of renewed diplomacy argue that economic engagement could help stabilize the region, boost global energy supplies, and support Iran’s struggling economy after years of conflict and isolation.

The debate highlights one of the most complex aspects of ongoing negotiations: how to revive Iran’s economy without unintentionally empowering entities that remain under international scrutiny.

As talks move forward, the future of sanctions relief will likely play a decisive role not only in US-Iran relations but also in determining who ultimately gains the most from any economic reopening.