US officials see Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely before 2028

US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping's instructions for the military to be ready by 2027 to take the island by force if necessary, people familiar with US thinking said.

US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, despite Chinese President Xi Jinping’s instructions for the military to be ready by 2027 to take the island by force if necessary, people familiar with US thinking said.

The assessment reflects delays in China’s military readiness amid an anti-corruption campaign by the Chinese Communist Party, as well as Beijing’s interest in seeing the outcome of Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election, according to two current US officials, a former US official and another person familiar with the matter.

Some Chinese officials hope the election could produce a government more amenable to bringing Taiwan under Chinese control, the people said.

Beijing may increasingly consider using force in 2028 and beyond if Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth consecutive term, particularly if President Lai Ching-te is re-elected, the people added.

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The assessment represents an update to the long-standing understanding among US officials that Xi wanted the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to potentially take Taiwan by force in 2027, the centenary of the PLA’s founding.

US officials and analysts have said the 2027 benchmark refers to military capabilities rather than a fixed timetable for an invasion. The US intelligence community said in its annual threat assessment in March that Chinese leaders did not then plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 and had no fixed timeline for achieving unification.

China has never ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under its control, but it has not publicly confirmed a 2027 invasion target.

The Pentagon declined to comment, while China’s US embassy and Taiwan’s representative office in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment, according to the report.

The assessment comes as Beijing continues to develop military capabilities for a possible conflict while also saying it seeks peaceful development of cross-Strait relations and eventual “reunification”.

Lai and his ruling DPP advocate Taiwan’s separate identity from China, while Beijing regards Taiwan as part of its territory. Taiwan rejects Beijing’s claims and says its future should be decided by its people.