Will Netanyahu Be Ousted?

I may be somewhat lost in my study tour of England, but I am certainly not disconnected from Global developments & political changes. In particular, I have been closely following the recent Israeli elections & their results, which have not only caused considerable concern for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu but may also bring an end to his long political reign.

In the 120 member Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, the coalition led by Netanyahu has secured a total of 53 seats, while the opposition alliance led by Eisenkot has won 48 seats. For the first time, the Arab alliance has emerged as a significant political force, securing 19 seats.

I see little possibility of the Arab alliance joining hands with Netanyahu, as their entire election campaign was built around one central objective: removing Netanyahu from the office of Prime Minister.

Netanyahu’s own Likud Party had secured 32 seats in the 2022 elections. Despite what could be described as a reasonably strong performance as Prime Minister, why has his party lost five valuable seats in the latest elections?

Politically, the biggest accusation against Netanyahu concerns the devastating Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. During that attack, approximately 1,200 Israeli citizens were killed, and more than 250 people were taken hostage and transported to Gaza.

Where was Netanyahu’s government at that critical moment?

The Government’s failure to anticipate or prevent such a massive attack was not merely an intelligence failure; it amounted to an unforgivable level of criminal negligence and a serious failure of responsibility.

This was precisely the central message of the opposition alliance led by General Eisenkot: Netanyahu’s failure on October 7 was so grave that he no longer deserved to remain Prime Minister.

It is worth mentioning that Eisenkot himself lost his son in that brutal attack.

Therefore, those who believe that Netanyahu’s removal would lead to a softer Israeli policy towards Hamas or Iran under an Eisenkot-led government are not making an accurate assessment. The fundamental security positions of both leaders are unlikely to be dramatically different.

However, the Arab alliance has become a major factor for both political camps. With its 19 seats, it has emerged as a third political force capable of playing the role of kingmaker.

If the both Arab alliances remain united, it could determine who forms the next government. Whichever of the two major alliances secures their cooperation could potentially come to power.

However, this arrangement would not be without complications. One major concern is that hardline religious Jewish parties could refuse to participate in a coalition that includes Arab parties. They might even withdraw from an existing alliance and move towards the opposite camp.

Before going any further, I would like to explain to my readers and viewers that Israel’s parliamentary electoral system is different from the conventional electoral systems found in many other countries.

Israel follows a system of proportional representation in which the entire country serves as a single electoral constituency. Political parties submit lists of candidates, and voters cast their ballots for parties rather than individual candidates. Each party receives parliamentary seats in proportion to the votes it secures.

There is also an electoral threshold: a party must obtain at least 3.5 percent of the total valid votes to qualify for parliamentary representation. Any party failing to reach this threshold is excluded and receives no seats.

Because of this complicated democratic system, Israel has held 26 parliamentary elections since its establishment on May 14, 1948. The first elections took place on January 25, 1949.

Interestingly, no political party has ever managed to secure enough seats on its own to form a government. Every party has had to join forces with other politically aligned parties to establish a coalition government.

Netanyahu himself has previously served as Prime Minister on two occasions.

One reason for his relatively strong relationship with ultra-Orthodox and religious hardline Jewish groups is that he has granted members of these communities a certain degree of exemption from Israel’s security and military service obligations. Under Israeli regulations, however, citizens are generally expected to fulfil military service responsibilities, particularly when called upon during emergencies.

Despite being an experienced and politically sophisticated leader educated in the United States, Netanyahu has frequently faced accusations of extremism.

His opposition to the peace process initiated by Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who sought an agreement with Yasser Arafat, was particularly intense. The political atmosphere became so hostile that a Jewish extremist eventually assassinated Rabin, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, in a manner that drew comparisons with the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat.

As things stand, Netanyahu has only one realistic route to remaining Prime Minister: breaking away some of the parties currently supporting the opposition alliance.

That possibility could arise if Eisenkot attempts to form a government with the support of the Arab alliance. Such a move might create divisions within his own coalition, allowing Netanyahu to attract some of its members.

Another possibility is that, fearing the growing influence of the Arab alliance, both major political blocs could agree to form a broad national unity government.

However, such an arrangement would likely cause greater political damage to Eisenkot, whose opposition campaign has largely been built around removing Netanyahu from power.

A third possibility is that neither alliance succeeds in forming a government.

Under parliamentary rules, Netanyahu could then remain in office as a caretaker Prime Minister, although his authority and political position would be considerably weaker.

Suppose that, under these circumstances, another election is held after 100 days. I do not expect the results to be substantially different from those of the current election.

After all, Israel has already experienced a prolonged period of political instability. Between 2019 and 2022, five elections had to be held within approximately three and a half years because political parties repeatedly failed to secure the numbers required to form a stable government.

Considerable efforts have once again been made during the latest election campaign. Even US President Donald Trump has personally claimed some credit for Netanyahu’s electoral performance. Trump has said that his repeated public support and numerous supportive posts on social media helped Netanyahu secure these seats, suggesting that without his intervention, Netanyahu might have faced an even worse outcome.

Nevertheless, whatever mandate the Israeli people have delivered through their votes must be respected. Israeli politics will have to move forward on the basis of this public verdict.

Amid the authoritarian political systems that dominate much of the Middle East, Israel’s democratic system remains a distinctive feature of its political landscape. This democratic tradition is arguably one of the country’s greatest strengths and deserves recognition.

In another column, I hope to discuss the religious freedoms enjoyed by Arab citizens of Israel and the influence they exercise within Israeli politics.