Xi’s September diplomacy raises hope for Gulf peace

Expectations ran high in the Gulf states as Chinese President Xi landed in Kyrgyzstan on Sunday for the 2026 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, where he is due to meet his Iranian counterpart, President Pezeshkian.

Four years after his landmark visit to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the final days of 2022, President Xi apparently considers that the time is ripe for him to make a major foreign-policy move. This is particularly extraordinary given the fact that he rarely leaves his country.

One year after visiting Saudi Arabia, President Xi was able to bring Saudi and Iranian leaders to the table in 2023, leading them to agree on a cessation of hostilities and the resumption of diplomatic ties through the Beijing Agreement.

The US-Israeli war on Iran and Iran’s indiscriminate fire on its Gulf neighbours could not break this agreement. Perhaps partly because of this agreement, Saudi Arabia exercised caution and did not buy the argument of extremists in the US and Israel that war could bring about regime change in Iran.

Time has proved that Saudi Arabia was right in its understanding of Gulf dynamics. Why would it not be right? After all, who knows the Gulf better than Saudi Arabia?

But China goes beyond war and defence pacts. It works for a system that facilitates its advancement. China adopts a policy of hedging in international relations. It will not go hard on Iran because of its Gulf business partners, and it will not be hard on the Gulf states because of Iran.

What I expect is that his talks with the Iranian President will lead to a series of changes in the Gulf region, and these changes will bring peace in due course.
This time, he will spend the full month of September on an intensive diplomatic tour. It is a carefully sequenced strategic message to the Gulf capitals and to Washington.

Xi is in Kyrgyzstan for the SCO summit. From there, he will fly to Egypt, then to India for the BRICS summit and finally to Washington, where he is expected to meet President Trump on September 24.
Some American experts believe he might address the United Nations in New York, but the Chinese Foreign Ministry has made no such confirmation.

Commentators in the Gulf, especially in Doha, who believe that President Xi will fix the Iranian problem for them are mistaken. Similarly, those in Washington who claim that he will ask Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran will do so are also mistaken.

It is true that China has taken clear diplomatic actions regarding the ongoing conflict. In official diplomatic communications, including high-level discussions with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, President Xi stressed that keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is in the “shared interests of regional countries and the international community.”

Last month, the Saudi Foreign Minister visited Beijing and stayed there for two days. The Chinese authorities explicitly conveyed to him that they stand with Saudi Arabia in seeking a diplomatic solution to the Gulf conflict, as war is not a solution to any problem.

The Gulf now gives greater importance to China than ever before. On August 24, the Gulf Research Centre reported that “Riyadh hosted a high-level meeting between China and its Gulf Cooperation Council partners last Thursday in Riyadh, marking an important moment in GCC-China engagement amid a rapidly evolving regional landscape.”

“Senior officials highlighted the considerable progress achieved since the establishment of the GCC-China Strategic Partnership in December 2022, while discussing new initiatives to further strengthen cooperation between the two sides. The meeting also builds on China’s growing diplomatic engagement in the region, including its role in the 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement.

“The meeting comes at a particularly significant moment following the recent war, which has provided an important test of China’s expanding diplomatic role in the Middle East. Beijing has considerable interests at stake: Gulf energy security, Belt and Road connectivity, expanding GCC economic ties, its partnership with Iran, and regional stability.

China has continued to advocate diplomacy and has supported efforts, including those led by Pakistan, to advance US-Iran dialogue,” it said. Seen in this backcloth, the talks between President Xi and President Pezeshkian will surely open new windows of cooperation in the region. There is no need to look at the emerging Gulf from the perspective of the US and Israel.

The opening of the Strait is not the sole criterion by which to measure peace in the Gulf. Hormuz is an indicator of regional stability, but peace in the Gulf is a much larger political phenomenon.
After all, it is always the US that engages in shedding the blood of the people of this region.

In 1926, Abdulaziz bin Abdul Rahman Al Saud was crowned King, and in 1932 he declared his Kingdom as Saudi Arabia. In the last 100 years of the Kingdom’s existence, Saudi Arabia occasionally went to war with other countries.

September is the month of Chinese President Xi’s international diplomacy. It is a very rare occasion. It is not limited to the SCO Summit. There is no reason not to hope that his diplomacy will bring peace to the Gulf region in a sustainable manner.