Black Sea wheat exports slump as ship attacks escalate

Black Sea wheat exports are sliding as attacks on ships and ports escalate, pushing prices higher and forcing buyers to look elsewhere.

Russia and Ukraine jointly account for around a quarter of global wheat sales. Analysts put their combined volumes 60 percent below last year.

Why Black Sea wheat exports are falling

Since mid-July, strikes on commercial vessels have grown sharply. The British risk firm Ambrey logged over 210 strikes on merchant ships from July to late September. It blamed 125 on Ukraine and 88 on Russia.

For July, the ministry tallied 35 strikes on ships in port, 22 on ships at sea, plus 67 hits on port facilities. For all of 2025, the total stood at 15.

Russia says it targets only military assets. Ukrainian port officials reject that claim. They point to a July missile strike near Odesa that killed 10 people on a vessel carrying corn.

Ukraine has also hit Russian ships and ports. In August, a large missile and drone raid on Novorossiysk hit a naval base and two large grain export terminals.

Black Sea wheat exports lift prices

Wheat futures in Chicago have gained over 17 percent since early July. Black Sea offers have shrunk, and that is the main reason. Prices are also climbing among other major exporters, including Argentina, Australia and the United States.

Attacks forced some grain terminals to close. Shippers then delayed or cancelled dozens of cargoes in the peak season. A Singapore-based trader said many ships due in mid-August could not dock to load, so Black Sea wheat exports suffered.

Many importers, among them Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Vietnam, depend on grain from the two sides at war. Buyers now consider replacing part of their supply. They look at wheat from Australia, North America and Argentina.

Ukraine’s grain corridor under pressure

More than 90 percent of Ukrainian grain exports pass through seaports. Russian strikes have pushed Ukraine’s agrarian ministry to trim its grain export forecast. For 2026-2027, it now sees 38 to 40 million tonnes, down from 43 million.

The UN and Turkey brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2022. It collapsed after a year, when Russia refused to renew it. Ukraine then set up its own corridor along the coasts of Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania. Russian attacks have now disrupted that route as well.

Turkey and others have tried to arrange a limited truce at sea, but those attempts have failed so far. London insurers have widened the area they consider high risk. Ambrey has also found more than 50 unexploded devices outside Russian and Ukrainian waters this year.

A wider food risk

Dmytro Barinov, who heads the Ukrainian Ports Association, said the problem reached the whole region. He warned that everyone could feel a food shortage “October, November latest.”

He compared the attacks to “hunting for an elephant from a helicopter,” because merchant ships move slowly and carry no military defences.

For now, Black Sea wheat exports remain under heavy pressure, and a lasting truce looks distant, which adds to global food inflation.