Far-right AfD claims historic win in German state election, deepening pressure on Merz

The far-right Alternative for Germany party surged to first place in state elections in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, according to exit polls, putting a party with far-right roots within striking distance of governing power at the state level in Germany for the first time since the end of World War Two.

The AfD fell short of an outright majority but captured 44 percent of the vote, delivering a heavy blow to the conservative bloc led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz and reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with Germany’s governing coalition amid an increasingly fractured political landscape.

The party is already the most popular in Germany at the national level and has been working to establish a foothold from which to advance its platform, which includes sharp restrictions on immigration, restoring relations with Russia, cutting support for Ukraine and withdrawing Germany from the euro currency. As vote counting continued, it remained unclear whether the AfD would be able to form a governing coalition, though the broader political significance of the result was immediately apparent. Public broadcaster ZDF reported turnout of 77 percent, a notably high figure for a state election.

Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s 35 year old lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, told supporters the party had made history, framing the result as clear evidence that voters wanted political change and specifically wanted the AfD to deliver it. Siegmund, who drew large crowds throughout the campaign, has repeatedly described a win in Saxony-Anhalt as a first step toward winning national power in federal elections scheduled for 2029. As initial exit poll numbers were released, he stood alongside the party’s two national leaders, who appeared visibly pleased as the scale of the victory became clear. Celebrations broke out at the party’s election night gathering in Magdeburg, where supporters waved German flags and embraced one another.

United States President Donald Trump shared a screenshot of the results without additional comment on his social media platform, while several far-right leaders elsewhere in Europe welcomed the outcome as a sign of broader political change across the continent.

The result represents a substantial setback for Merz, whose personal approval ratings have fallen to historic lows as voters express frustration with both his proposed economic reforms and his often criticized communication style. A survey conducted by broadcaster ARD found that 87 percent of voters in the state expressed dissatisfaction with the federal government. Siegmund has previously suggested that Merz’s unpopularity in the region has effectively worked in the AfD’s favor throughout the campaign.

Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research, said the outcome should be understood primarily as a vote of no confidence in the federal government rather than a full endorsement of AfD policy. Merz has pledged to revive Germany’s underperforming economy through business friendly reforms and increased public spending, while warning ahead of the vote that an AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt risked damaging the state’s economic standing and discouraging foreign investment.

Germany’s mainstream political parties have consistently refused to cooperate with the AfD, which the domestic intelligence service’s regional office has classified as right-wing extremist. One exception is the smaller Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which appeared positioned to clear the threshold needed to enter the state parliament. That party has floated the possibility of governing Saxony-Anhalt through a nonpartisan state premier who would rely on shifting legislative majorities, potentially including support from AfD lawmakers on individual votes.

Siegmund dismissed that proposal as unworkable and said he would not support any arrangement designed to prevent the AfD from governing on its own terms, adding that new elections would simply be called if no workable coalition could be formed. Merz’s conservative bloc said it intends to explore talks with other parties, though doing so would likely require assembling a coalition of groups with sharply differing policy positions. In the neighboring state of Thuringia, the conservatives currently govern as a minority administration with passive support from the Left party.

Saxony-Anhalt, a former East German state with a population of just over two million people, is among Germany’s smaller states, but the result nonetheless highlights the AfD’s rapid rise since its founding in 2013. Nationally, the party currently polls at around 28 percent according to a recent survey from pollster INSA, well ahead of the conservatives at 20 percent.

Germany’s history under Nazi rule has long contributed to mainstream reluctance to work with the AfD, even as hard-right parties have gained ground in other parts of Europe. The AfD has rejected accusations of extremism, describing them as unfounded and dismissive of the party’s millions of supporters.

Throughout the campaign, the AfD sought to capitalize on growing frustration with Germany’s established political parties, which it portrayed as disconnected from ordinary voters, while promoting a platform centered on traditional values and a return to what it described as safer, more orderly communities. One attendee at the party’s election night event, identified as Antony Lee, said he believed change was necessary across Germany and Western Europe more broadly, describing himself as a father and business owner who felt current conditions in the country were unsustainable.

The AfD’s broader policy platform includes proposals to steer schools and cultural institutions toward more traditional values, tighten immigration policy and restructure public broadcasting. The party has also called for segregated classrooms for the children of refugees, a ban on displaying rainbow flags in schools, and daily flying of the German national flag, along with regular singing of the national anthem at school events. Additional proposals include citizen patrol programs, expanded Russian language instruction in schools and a halt to the construction of new wind farms.

The outcome in Saxony-Anhalt is expected to intensify debate within Germany’s mainstream parties over how to respond to the AfD’s continued growth, particularly with national elections still several years away and public frustration with the governing coalition showing few signs of easing in the near term.