Summary
- The fragile ceasefire promised under the newly signed US-Iran memorandum of understanding is already under strain, as Israeli forces continue heavy bombardments in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah retaliates with deadly ambushes.
- Defence Minister Israel Katz insisted Israel would act independently: “No one can tell us what to do.” Iran’s position and red lines Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said talks with Washington would remain bound by Tehran’s “red lines.” He warned that if the US sought excessive demands, Iran would respond militarily.
- French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot urged Israel to respect the US-Iran deal and said Washington must exert pressure to ensure compliance.
The fragile ceasefire promised under the newly signed US-Iran memorandum of understanding is already under strain, as Israeli forces continue heavy bombardments in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah retaliates with deadly ambushes. The escalation underscores the deep divisions between regional actors and raises questions about whether the agreement can deliver the promised end to hostilities across the Middle East.
Overnight bombardment in Nabatieh
According to Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA), Israeli artillery and air strikes pounded Nabatieh, Kfar Jouz, Kfar Reman, Zebdine, Kfar Tibnit, and the Rayhan heights after midnight. Al Jazeera reported that the assault was among the most intense in recent weeks, targeting multiple homes. At least eight people were killed in Nabatieh and Harouf, while four died in a strike between Al-Sharqiya and Doueir. A drone attack near the Doueir municipality building killed one person and wounded another.
The Lebanese health ministry confirmed 18 deaths and 33 wounded in the overnight raids, warning the toll could rise as rescue efforts were hampered by continued bombardment. Israel claimed the strikes targeted Hezbollah operatives and infrastructure in response to “ceasefire violations.”
Hezbollah strikes back
Hezbollah announced that its fighters ambushed Israeli forces near Ali al-Taher hill, destroying three Merkava tanks with guided missiles and targeting troops with rocket and artillery fire. The group said clashes were ongoing. Israel later confirmed four of its soldiers were killed, one of the deadliest incidents since the escalation began.
The Israeli military said it struck more than 80 Hezbollah targets overnight, killing “dozens” of fighters. It released a map showing an expanded occupation zone in southern Lebanon, raising doubts about its commitment to the US-Iran deal, which calls for respect of Lebanon’s sovereignty.
Netanyahu vows to stay in Lebanon
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared Israeli troops would remain in Lebanon “as long as necessary” to protect northern communities. “Israel will not tolerate attacks on our soldiers or our territory, and it will exact a very heavy price from Hezbollah,” he said.
Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir escalated rhetoric further, saying “all of Lebanon must burn” after the deaths of four Israeli soldiers. Defence Minister Israel Katz insisted Israel would act independently: “No one can tell us what to do.”
Iran’s position and red lines
Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said talks with Washington would remain bound by Tehran’s “red lines.” He warned that if the US sought excessive demands, Iran would respond militarily. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei approved the deal but stressed that direct talks with the US did not mean accepting its viewpoint.
President Masoud Pezeshkian echoed that Iran would defend its “dignity, honour and authority.” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pledged to use diplomacy to protect Iran’s interests. Conservatives in Tehran voiced scepticism, warning against inspections of nuclear facilities and insisting the Strait of Hormuz remained Iran’s leverage.
Iran’s Strait of Hormuz authority later announced it would waive planned transit fees during the 60-day negotiation period, though it intends to charge for services afterward.
Trump ridicules claims Iran is stronger
US President Donald Trump dismissed suggestions that Iran had emerged stronger from the war. On Truth Social, he wrote: “The War has diminished Iran! It doesn’t, any longer, have an Air Force, a Navy, Antiaircraft Equipment, Radar, or practically anything else, and yet the Dumocrats say that Iran is better off now than it was four months ago.”
Trump insisted Iran sought engagement from a position of weakness and vowed that Tehran would receive “no money, not ten cents.” He said the US would “play out the 60 days” while maintaining economic pressure.
International reactions
China’s UN envoy Fu Cong urged Israel to stop violating the Gaza ceasefire and warned against reckless actions. French President Emmanuel Macron called on Netanyahu to “show responsibility and rationality,” condemning settlement expansion in the West Bank. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot urged Israel to respect the US-Iran deal and said Washington must exert pressure to ensure compliance.
Macron also pledged French support for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and assisting the Lebanese army in reasserting control.
Diplomatic uncertainty
The Swiss Foreign Ministry announced that planned US-Iran technical talks at Bürgenstock were cancelled due to unresolved logistics. US Vice President JD Vance postponed his trip, while Iran’s negotiators demanded signs of implementation before further discussions.
The memorandum signed by Trump and Pezeshkian provides for a 60-day negotiation period on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief. It includes commitments to end hostilities on all fronts, lift the US naval blockade, reopen Hormuz, and establish a $300 billion reconstruction fund.
Critics argue Iran has gained leverage by withstanding a superpower attack and securing waivers for oil exports. Supporters say the deal could yield stronger nuclear safeguards than the 2015 accord Trump abandoned.
Regional instability
Despite the ceasefire framework, Israeli strikes in Lebanon continue, displacing more than a million people. Amnesty International has accused Israel of war crimes through forced displacement orders, saying its designation of “no-go zones” amounts to unlawful transfer.
Opposition figures in Israel, including Yair Lapid, warned that the government’s handling of relations with Washington and Europe was isolating the country. “If we don’t quickly replace this government, Israel’s foreign relations will be wiped out,” Lapid said.
The US-Iran deal was intended to end a war that has killed more than 7,000 people and destabilised global energy markets. Yet Israel’s refusal to withdraw from Lebanon and Hezbollah’s continued resistance threaten to unravel the agreement.
With 60 days to negotiate a final settlement, the coming weeks will test whether Washington can enforce compliance among its allies and whether Tehran can balance diplomacy with its hardline red lines. For now, Lebanon remains the flashpoint, and the ceasefire envisioned in the Islamabad MoU looks increasingly fragile.
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