Monsoon outlook warns of floods, landslides and glacier melt risks

Pakistan’s Meteorological Department has issued its seasonal outlook for the 2026 monsoon season, warning of increased risks from heavy rainfall, rising temperatures, glacier melting, and possible flooding in vulnerable areas.

Islamabad: Pakistan’s Meteorological Department has issued its seasonal outlook for the 2026 monsoon season, warning of increased risks from heavy rainfall, rising temperatures, glacier melting, and possible flooding in vulnerable areas.

According to the latest forecast, several regions are expected to receive normal monsoon rainfall, including Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and upper parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, officials have cautioned that higher-than-average temperatures in northern mountainous areas could accelerate the melting of glaciers and increase water flow in rivers during the rainy season.

The weather department said rising temperatures in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalayan regions may increase the risk of glacier-related hazards. Faster glacier melting could contribute to higher river levels and create conditions for local flooding, particularly in areas located near rivers, streams, and glacial valleys.

The outlook also highlighted the possibility of intense but short-duration rainfall events. Such heavy downpours may trigger flash floods, landslides, and debris flows in mountainous and low-lying regions. Authorities also warned that the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) could increase due to changing weather conditions and rising temperatures.

Residents living near rivers, mountain streams, and glacier-fed valleys have been advised to remain alert during the monsoon season. The Meteorological Department urged relevant government agencies to closely monitor weather patterns and flood risks while ensuring timely warnings are issued to communities in danger zones.

Officials also encouraged citizens to follow official weather updates and safety instructions, particularly during periods of heavy rainfall. Emergency preparedness measures are considered essential to reduce the potential impact of natural disasters during the monsoon season.

In a separate assessment of the pre-monsoon period from April to June 2026, the weather department reported that Pakistan received rainfall slightly above normal levels. The country recorded approximately 13 percent more rainfall than average during the three-month period.

Punjab experienced rainfall around 23 percent above normal, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa received 15 percent more rainfall than average. Azad Jammu and Kashmir recorded a 10 percent increase, and Balochistan also saw rainfall levels about 10 percent higher than normal. Sindh experienced near-normal rainfall, while Gilgit-Baltistan recorded rainfall around 17 percent below average during the pre-monsoon season.

Experts say changing weather patterns highlight the growing need for stronger disaster management systems and climate adaptation measures. With extreme weather events becoming more frequent, authorities are emphasizing early warnings, public awareness, and coordinated responses to protect communities during the upcoming monsoon season.