No safe space for war’, ex-General warns Pakistan and India

ISLAMABAD: Failure to resolve the longstanding disputes between Pakistan and India could pave the way for more dangerous confrontations between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, retired General Zubair Mahmood Hayat has warned, stressing that ending a crisis without addressing its underlying causes only postpones the next one.

Speaking at the concluding session of the second Islamabad Non-Proliferation Conference on Wednesday, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) called for meaningful efforts to resolve the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, restore the Indus Waters Treaty and strengthen political dialogue to reduce regional security risks.

The conference was organised by the Strategic Vision Institute (SVI), where Gen Hayat highlighted the dangers of allowing unresolved disputes to continue fuelling tensions in South Asia.

He cautioned that crises could become increasingly difficult to control if political restraint weakened, dialogue remained limited and disagreements over territory and water continued without a sustainable resolution.

“Terminating a crisis without addressing its root causes only sets the stage for the next, more dangerous conflict,” he said.

Gen Hayat emphasised that Jammu and Kashmir remained a fundamental issue between the two countries and could not simply be dismissed as an administrative matter. He also warned against turning water, a shared and essential resource, into a means of exerting political pressure.

His remarks underscored the importance of addressing both the Kashmir dispute and the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty as part of broader efforts to prevent future confrontations.

Lessons from the May 2025 conflict

Referring to the May 2025 military confrontation, Gen Hayat said Pakistan had demonstrated its military capabilities and political control through what he described as a calibrated response. According to him, the response prevented India from securing a unilateral fait accompli without pushing the situation towards an unlimited war.

However, he cautioned against interpreting the episode as evidence that military conflict between nuclear-armed states could be managed safely.

“The larger lesson is not that conflict between two nuclear-armed neighbours can be made routine; it is that there is no tested and certified safe space for war,” he said.

He warned that future confrontations could be more unpredictable because of changes in political leadership, emerging technologies and increasingly short decision-making timelines. These factors, he said, could leave governments with less time to verify information and assess the consequences of military action.

Risk of miscalculation remains

Gen Hayat also pointed to the absence of an inclusive regional security framework, effective crisis-management mechanisms and sustained political engagement in South Asia.

Without such arrangements, he warned, the region would remain caught between the deterrence that prevents a major war and the unresolved disputes that repeatedly bring the neighbours to the brink of confrontation.

He further cautioned that unverified allegations could trigger escalation before facts were established. A future crisis, he suggested, might emerge not from a deliberate decision by either government but from an accident or a miscalculation that rapidly spiralled out of control.

He cited the continuing Operation Sindoor in this context, highlighting the risks associated with an environment in which tensions remain high and reliable crisis-management channels are lacking.

The former military chief’s remarks highlighted the need for stronger communication, restraint and sustained diplomatic engagement between Islamabad and New Delhi.

His central warning was that temporary de-escalation alone cannot guarantee lasting peace. Unless the disputes driving repeated crises are addressed, South Asia could face future confrontations that are harder to contain and carry even greater consequences for regional and global security.