OPEC demand forecast trimmed, recovery pushed into next year

The OPEC demand forecast for 2026 now sees oil use growing by just 400,000 barrels a day, far below the 1.4 million projected earlier, its chief said.

Haitham Al Ghais, Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, gave the new figure on Monday. He spoke on the sidelines of the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh.

“Due to ongoing developments, OPEC has lowered its oil demand forecast for this year,” he said. According to Al Ghais, the change reflects events throughout the year.

Still, the new OPEC demand forecast does not treat that demand as lost. Instead, OPEC expects part of the growth to shift into 2027, when it predicts a wave of pent-up consumption.

OPEC demand forecast shifts to 2027

For next year, Al Ghais said OPEC expects global oil use to rise by 1.7 million barrels a day. That would mark a sharp rebound from this year’s weak pace.

The revised figure for 2026 sits close to the number in the group’s latest monthly report. In September, OPEC put this year’s growth at 380,000 barrels a day, down from 600,000 a month earlier.

That report put total world consumption this year at about 105.8 million barrels a day. At the same time, OPEC raised its 2027 growth forecast to about 2.4 million barrels a day.

In fact, the group has lowered its 2026 outlook repeatedly this year.

Where the growth will come from

According to the September report, demand in rich OECD countries will fall by about 110,000 barrels a day this year. Developing economies, by contrast, will add about 490,000 barrels a day.

Next year, those developing economies should drive most of the rebound. Buyers in Asia lead the way, as China, India and the rest of the continent make up close to 1.2 million barrels a day of next year’s rise.

China shows the starkest swing. For China, OPEC sees almost no change this year, with demand up only 10,000 barrels a day to roughly 16.90 million.

In 2027, however, China should add 380,000 barrels a day. India, meanwhile, will see growth of just 60,000 barrels a day this year before another 400,000 next year.

OPEC expects transport fuels to lead the recovery, followed by petrochemical feedstocks as new plants open in China.

Riyadh congress meets under pressure

Al Ghais made his remarks at the 25th WPC Energy Congress, which Riyadh is hosting for the first time. The four-day event brings together government and industry leaders, academics, financiers and technology experts.

Opening the event, WPC Energy president Pedro Miras argued that growing populations and economies require energy from multiple sources. He noted that the global population could approach 10 billion by the middle of the century.

In addition, Miras argued that technology alone cannot deliver change. In his view, it also requires stable rules, long-term investment and closer international cooperation.

For now, the lower OPEC demand forecast underlines how deeply this year’s turmoil has hit oil consumption, even as producers bet on a strong recovery in 2027.