Pakistan faces serious blackout risk amid power system stress

Lahore: Pakistan’s power sector is facing a serious risk of a nationwide blackout as prolonged load shedding, unplanned solarisation and growing instability in the national grid place increasing pressure on the electricity system, power-sector sources have warned.

A senior official holding a key position in the power sector told Minute Mirror that the situation had reached a critical point and that, if current conditions persisted, a system-wide blackout could occur at any time.

Such an event, the official said, could result in the suspension of electricity supplies across the country, with restoration potentially taking three to four days depending on the extent of the system collapse.

“We are facing a serious blackout risk,” the official said, adding that extensive load shedding was currently being carried out as a protective measure to prevent a larger collapse of the power system.

The situation is further complicated by what sources described as inadequate black-start capability in the country. A black start refers to the ability of a power station to restart without relying on electricity from the national grid, allowing generation to be gradually restored following a major system failure.

According to power-sector sources, effective black-start facilities are currently available only at Mangla and Tarbela in the northern part of the system, while in the southern region the facility is reportedly available only at Mach, Balochistan. The black-start facility at Kotri has become non-functional, sources said.

Pakistan’s power system is broadly divided into northern and southern regions, making adequate black-start arrangements at strategically located generation plants crucial for restoring electricity in the event of a major blackout.

Sources said the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) had provided funds to four power plants for establishing black-start facilities, but the plants had yet to operationalise the facilities.

The four plants, often referred to in power-sector circles as the “Four Sisters” because of their similar design and technology , are Saif Power Limited in Sahiwal, Sapphire Electric Company Limited in Muridke, Sheikhupura, Orient Power Company in Balloki, Kasur, and Halmore Power Generation Company in Bhikki, Sheikhupura.

All four plants have similar structural designs, use standardised technology and have comparable generation configurations, making them potentially suitable for supporting system restoration, sources said.

The absence of operational black-start facilities at these plants is particularly concerning because of their location in Punjab, home to a large proportion of the country’s population and major electricity demand centres, including Lahore.

Sources said that in the event of a major blackout, having operational black-start capability at these plants could significantly strengthen the system’s ability to restore electricity in central Punjab and surrounding areas.

Meanwhile, prolonged load shedding has already intensified public hardship across Punjab and other parts of the country. Lahore and several other areas are experiencing eight to 10 hours of power cuts amid extreme heat and high humidity, making conditions particularly difficult for residents at night.

However, power-sector sources said the current crisis was not primarily the result of fuel shortages at power plants. Instead, they attributed much of the system stress to what they described as rapid and poorly planned solarisation across the country.

According to the sources, a sharp shift in electricity consumption patterns has created a major challenge for grid management. During daylight hours, a substantial portion of electricity demand is met through rooftop and other solar installations, reducing demand from the national grid and forcing conventional power plants to reduce output or shut down.

At night, however, solar generation falls rapidly while consumers return to the national grid, causing demand to rise sharply within a relatively short period.

Sources said conventional power plants require time to ramp up generation, while the sudden increase in demand creates significant challenges in maintaining the required balance between generation and consumption.

This imbalance can disturb the system’s voltage and frequency, forcing grid operators to resort to load shedding to protect the network from a wider collapse.

“If forced load shedding is not carried out under such circumstances, the system could collapse and a blackout could occur,” a power-sector source said.
Sources further said that Pakistan was witnessing an unprecedented expansion of solarisation, with solar panels equivalent to around 55,000 megawatts of capacity being imported or entering the market. Millions of consumers, they said, had effectively moved partially or completely off-grid.

The rapid expansion of distributed solar generation has coincided with a decline in electricity consumption from the national grid, sources said, adding that the contraction of industrial activity had further aggravated the problem.

They said Pakistan currently had around 30,000MW of conventional generation capacity available, but a significant portion of that capacity remained underutilised during daylight hours because of reduced grid demand.

The challenge emerges when solar generation declines in the evening. Conventional plants have to be brought back into the system, but their ramp-up takes time while electricity demand rises rapidly, creating a difficult operating window for the national grid.

Sources said that unless the transition towards solar energy was accompanied by proper planning, grid upgrades, storage capacity and a coordinated strategy for integrating distributed generation, the growing mismatch between daytime and nighttime demand could continue to threaten system stability.

The officials stressed that the issue was not solar power itself but the absence of adequate planning and grid-management mechanisms to accommodate the rapid change in Pakistan’s electricity generation and consumption patterns.

With temperatures remaining high and electricity demand fluctuating sharply between day and night, power-sector sources warned that the immediate priority was to maintain grid stability and strengthen emergency restoration capacity to minimise the risk of a major system-wide failure.

In prevailing situation, weather conditions are also contributing to the current pressure on the power system, with the prolonged heatwave keeping electricity demand exceptionally high.

Any improvement in weather conditions and a subsequent decline in demand would provide some much-needed breathing space to the stressed power system, according to officials.

A spokesperson for the Power Division said the ministry was making every possible effort to maintain the stability of the power system and ensure its safe operation.

“We are closely monitoring the situation and taking necessary measures to keep the system secure and prevent any major disruption.”