Six months of war, six major consequences

WASHINGTON: Six months after the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran, a conflict that was initially portrayed as a short military campaign has developed into a prolonged and uncertain confrontation with consequences stretching far beyond the battlefield.

Iran has not surrendered, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted and there is still no clear diplomatic or military route to ending the war.

US President Donald Trump had previously predicted that the conflict could be resolved within weeks. Instead, Washington is now increasingly turning toward economic pressure after months of military operations failed to force Tehran into making the concessions the US had demanded.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reportedly told allies that further US attacks are unlikely “for the time being”.

While the next phase of the conflict remains uncertain, six major consequences are already becoming clear.

1. Trump faces a growing political cost

The war has become an increasingly difficult issue for Trump domestically.

Reuters/Ipsos polling shows Trump’s approval rating has fallen from 40% to 33% since the conflict began. Only 31% of Americans approve of the war, while rising fuel prices have added to public frustration.

The political problem is particularly significant because Trump returned to office promising to avoid prolonged foreign wars and focus on lowering costs for American households.

Instead, the Iran conflict has contributed to higher energy prices and raised concerns about inflation.

The issue could become more damaging for Republicans ahead of the November midterm elections, when the party must defend narrow majorities in Congress.

The war has also exposed divisions within Trump’s political coalition. Some Republicans with a more isolationist outlook are pressing for an end to the conflict, while others argue that military pressure on Tehran should continue.

2. Global economy shaken, but avoids worst-case scenario

The Strait of Hormuz has been at the centre of global economic concerns.

The narrow waterway between Iran and Oman carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s energy supplies. Disruption there immediately pushed oil prices higher and triggered fears of a worldwide economic downturn.

The consequences have been serious, but the global economy has so far proved more resilient than many economists initially expected.

The International Monetary Fund has reduced its global growth forecast twice since the conflict began and now expects the world economy to expand by 3% this year, compared with its 3.3% forecast in January.

Modern economies are generally less dependent on energy than they were during the oil shocks of the 1970s. Strong investment and spending, including continued growth in artificial intelligence, have also provided some protection against the economic shock.

Still, prolonged disruption around Hormuz remains a major risk for energy markets, shipping and global supply chains.

3. Iran badly damaged — but still fighting

Iran’s military and economy have suffered significant damage, but the country has not been defeated.

In May, US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper told Congress that American forces had destroyed 161 Iranian naval vessels and disabled 82% of Iran’s air-defence systems.

Iran’s air force, once capable of conducting dozens of sorties each day, had largely stopped operating.

Yet Tehran retains significant missile and drone capabilities. Iranian forces have continued attacking shipping and US military positions across the region.

A Reuters report in March estimated that the US could confirm the destruction of only about one-third of Iran’s large missile stockpile. The fate of another portion remained uncertain, with some missiles potentially damaged or buried inside underground facilities.

The human and economic cost has been enormous. Thousands have been killed, trade has been disrupted and inflation has accelerated dramatically.

Iran’s food inflation reached 128% year-on-year in July, according to the country’s Statistical Centre.

At the same time, the conflict appears to have strengthened political unity against external pressure while increasing the government’s crackdown on dissent.

4. Middle East instability has deepened

The conflict has also exposed the vulnerability of US allies across the Middle East.

Iranian missile and drone attacks have struck areas hosting US military and diplomatic facilities in Gulf Arab states. Air travel has been disrupted, while regional businesses have faced growing uncertainty.

Shipping has become another major concern.

Iranian attacks and disruption around Hormuz, combined with Houthi attacks affecting Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea, have increased insurance and transportation costs.

The impact has spread through regional supply chains, creating additional pressure on Gulf economies that depend heavily on stable trade and energy exports.

Rather than eliminating the Iranian threat, analysts say the war may have created a more unstable regional environment.

5. Iran’s nuclear programme faces delays — but uncertainty remains

One of Trump’s central arguments for the war has been preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.

US and Israeli strikes have severely damaged several Iranian enrichment facilities and sites suspected of supporting weapons-related activities. Israeli attacks have also killed senior Iranian nuclear scientists.

Before the latest fighting, US intelligence assessments had estimated Iran’s nuclear “breakout time” at up to one year, compared with as little as six months earlier.

But determining how much of Iran’s nuclear capability has actually been destroyed remains difficult.

International inspectors have not fully returned to Iran’s nuclear sites, leaving major gaps in outside knowledge.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has been unable to verify the location of roughly 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% since earlier strikes. That material could potentially be enriched further at a covert facility.

Iran has consistently denied seeking a nuclear weapon.

6. US military readiness has come under pressure

The war has also tested the limits of America’s military resources.

US forces have lost aircraft and drones through both combat and accidents. A Congressional Research Service report in May said 42 US military aircraft had been lost during the conflict.

The use of precision-guided weapons has raised another concern: ammunition stocks.

Reuters reported that the US military had used virtually all of its global supply of certain precision missiles. Meanwhile, a Centre for Strategic and International Studies estimate suggested that by July, the US had used about 65% of its Patriot interceptors and reduced its THAAD interceptor stockpile by at least 38%.

Washington has also moved fighter jets, warships and other military assets from Europe and the Asia-Pacific into the Middle East.

That redistribution has raised questions about America’s ability to respond to crises elsewhere.

The deployment of aircraft carriers has further highlighted the strain. The USS Gerald R. Ford spent more than a year deployed, its longest deployment since the Vietnam War, while the USS Abraham Lincoln faced concerns after spending more than 200 consecutive days at sea.

A conflict with no easy ending

Six months into the war, neither side has achieved a decisive victory.

Iran remains capable of retaliation, while the United States continues to face the economic, political and military costs of maintaining pressure on Tehran.

For Trump, the conflict has become a test of his promise to avoid endless wars. For Iran, it has brought enormous destruction while leaving the government determined to resist.

And for the rest of the world, the biggest concern may be what happens next.

With the Strait of Hormuz still disrupted, oil markets vulnerable and Iran’s nuclear programme difficult to assess, the war’s consequences are likely to extend far beyond its sixth month.