Strong El Niño could cause 451,000 extra heat deaths, study estimates

A powerful El Niño weather pattern could lead to around 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide through February, according to new projections by researchers at the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago.

The climate phenomenon, which was officially declared in June, is expected to reach its peak later this year. Researchers say it could become the strongest El Niño on record, adding to the effects of human-driven climate change.

Developing countries are expected to face the largest share of the projected health impact. The researchers estimate that the Sahel region of Africa could record around 66,800 additional heat-related deaths compared with a normal year, with Nigeria accounting for almost half of that figure.

Indonesia could see about 19,300 additional deaths, while the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia could collectively record around 19,400. The projections also estimate approximately 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India and 13,300 in Brazil.

According to the Climate Impact Lab, global land temperatures could remain around 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal during the coming months because of the combined influence of El Niño and ongoing climate change.

The researchers estimate that the phenomenon could result in 44 per cent more extremely hot days than would normally be expected.

To develop the projections, researchers examined the relationship between temperature and excess mortality across 24,378 regions. Their analysis considered local climate conditions and the vulnerability of populations in different areas.

They then combined the findings with long-range temperature forecasts to estimate the potential increase in deaths compared with the average recorded between 1996 and 2025.

The research methodology is due to be published in a peer-reviewed journal.

The projections come shortly after the United Nations warned that El Niño could pose a significant threat to global health. Researchers said the estimates could help governments and humanitarian organisations identify areas at greater risk and prepare preventive measures.

Possible measures include issuing heat alerts, establishing cooling centres and providing access to drinking water and hydration facilities.