The ME Lockdown; ‘The Houthi Effect’

Anticipation about another economy related lockdown is hitting the headlines. To refresh the readers, a similar lockdown was imposed during the early days of the Iran-US-IDF war in March. The rationale for the lockdown at that point of time and even now is two pronged; firstly, the government tried to cut on the fuel import expenditures of the economy; secondly to ensure that the cycle of economy does not stops and people are still able to work without incurring logistic pressure on their individual budgets as well as be able to save some.

The current lockdown, whose details might be on the anvil, is likely to be much harder than expected, not due to the fact that the government in control of the affairs might want that. Rather the evolving economic scenario in the global context is hard to ignore; to begin with. Towards understanding that developing story; it is imperative to observe; where Pakistan has put its ‘diplomatic eggs’ and how the consequent developments are likely impact the economy and other stakes.

It is a known fact that the Makkah agreement is a sort of Islamic NATO teamed up against ‘unknown’ enemies. Given the diplomatic and military record of the participating states, it is unlikely that the Israeli Defence Forces might turn out to be the prime target of the alliance.  A wandering analyst is guided by pure logic that the alliance might be for the Iranian Islamic Republic; given the history of conflict between the Saudi monarchy and the Iranian theocracy. 

Given the fact that the 2015 conflict between the Saudi backed Yemeni government in exile and the Houthi started on the feeble presumption that the Houthis were Iranian backed group. That presumption carried through a decade until a US brokered truce brought some respite to the Houthi Saudi front. 

The recent escalation seems to be guided more by the US and IDF factor post March war with Iran than the variables which so far governed the war. In few words the 10-year conflict was based on presumption that Iran is behind the Houthis. However, after the recent IDF-IRGC conflict where the Houthis stand now is more than obvious. Regards the evidence in Flight Radar with respect to the use of Saudi Airspace by the USAF Tankers; usually taking off from the IDF controlled airports and airbases, it does not need a categorical statement from any side of the political division in the Gulf, where lies the sympathies of the Saudi Monarchy.

The muted talk of the lock down, sounds logical on the ground that the escalation this time might not be manageable for the Saudis as well as CENTCOM.  Despite ‘all is well’ claims by the Trump administration, the situation at Brents where the cancellation of transit from Saudi destinations to the European destinations of the Saudi oil has already caused havoc in the form of talk of 120$ per barrel, very clearly suggest that if there are few more strikes on the Saudi infrastructure, the international situation can escalate. Here it is pertinent to note that the Hormuz closure though denied by the CENTCOM has already caused petrol riots in Syria and news is filtering out of Iraq that things are not in complete control of the government in terms of POL supplies there too.

For the countries like Pakistan, which is on the deferred payment supply arrangement with the Saudis, the economic backlash can be further imagined in the correct context. The Pakistani economic desperation and that of the foreign office can be gauged from the fact that the so-called alert raised by the Saudi defence forces about an alleged attack on the holy sites in Makkah was responded to by both the PM and the FO statements of condemnation. Parallel to that there were number of independent news sources that actually questioned the Saudi contention about such an attack taking place in the first instance.

He that needs attention of the analysts that there was a sense of desperateness in Islamabad corridors of power not to be left behind in being validated by Riyadh. As a matter of fact, the economic relief bought over by successive Pakistani governments irrespective of which political party or group they belonged to was based on the premise that it is wise to put all the eggs in the ‘Saudi basket’ instead of putting some stakes in the ‘Iranian basket’ too. 

Here it may be pointed out that to date the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline has seen no work on the Pakistani side. It is ironic that two regional pro US capitals; Baghdad and Ankara have not shied away from seeking natural gas supplies from Iran. The failure of the first Trump term sanctions was precisely due to the fact that Iraq and Turkey disagreed with US over sanctions and continued to import gas from Iran. 

That case study precisely defines; why Pakistani state and economy is in preemptive panic. Having cultivated quarrels with the neighbors including Iran from time to time, it is all but natural that the resource relief from Saudi Arabia now matters more than the usual circumstances. It remains to be seen as to how the situation in the Arabian Peninsula develops to be.

As anticipated the eyes of the world are now shifted from Hormuz to Yanbu, as the situation in Yanbu now dictates the trends in global economy. For Pakistan the stakes are even more harsh; given the positioning in the global divide, a position which is starkly unavoidable due to the economic imperatives.  The lock downs might come and go; the stakes need to be defined and if possible, debated in the parliament. The Pakistani state and society, economy and polity can ill afford the “Qalibaf Model” made to run in Iran; where everything was ‘Kitchen cabinet’; bypassing the constitutional checklists; for the alert minds; it is an indicator…….