The Sugar Saga: decades of import -export games, engineered shortages and delayed crushing 

The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has floated an international tender to export 107,739 metric tons of surplus imported sugar,

ISLAMABAD: The Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has floated an international tender to export 107,739 metric tons of surplus imported sugar, as Pakistan faces a domestic carryover surplus of up to 1.3 million tons. The move comes ahead of the new crushing season scheduled to begin on November 15, 2026, once again bringing the country’s decades-old sugar import, surplus and export cycle into focus.

Pakistan’s sugar industry has followed a familiar pattern for years: shortages are reported before the crushing season, prices rise, imports are approved and stocks eventually accumulate. Once a surplus develops, exports are proposed, only for concerns over shortages and rising prices to emerge again.

Sources familiar with the sector told Minute Mirror that sugar mills and influential industry groups have repeatedly benefited from this cycle, while the financial burden has ultimately been passed on to consumers and the national exchequer. Findings from investigations by the Federal Investigation Agency have also raised questions over whether shortages were deliberately created for financial gain.

THE IMPORT PLAYBOOK

Before crushing begins, mills often highlight potential shortages to support demands for imports. Government purchases then involve substantial public funds, while only limited quantities may initially enter the domestic market. Critics argue that this arrangement can allow market players to benefit from higher prices while taxpayers bear the cost of imports.

DELAYED CRUSHING AND FARMERS

Farmers face another challenge when mills delay the start of crushing. Concerns over excess stocks can pressure growers to sell sugarcane at lower prices. Delayed crushing can also improve sucrose recovery in some circumstances, allowing mills to obtain more sugar from the same quantity of cane.

This potentially gives mills several advantages: cheaper raw material, improved recovery and the opportunity to benefit from higher sugar prices if market conditions later tighten.

SURPLUS FOLLOWED BY SHORTAGE

When stocks increase significantly, industry representatives push for exports to reduce the surplus and generate foreign exchange. However, critics argue that exports can later contribute to domestic shortages and price increases.

The cycle has continued for years, raising questions about regulation, transparency and the influence of powerful industry groups on government decisions.

THE 2026 SURPLUS

The cycle has taken a new turn in 2026. The TCP has floated an international tender for the export of 107,739 metric tons of surplus imported sugar stored in government warehouses. Bids are due on September 28, 2026.

The Economic Coordination Committee approved the move as authorities prepare for the new crushing season. Pakistan currently has an estimated carryover surplus of 1.19 to 1.3 million tons, while total stocks are reported at around 3.1 to 3.4 million tons, against monthly consumption of approximately 564,000 tons.

The Pakistan Sugar Mills Association has sought permission to export 633,000 tons, arguing that exports could generate around $500 million and help mills meet financial obligations to banks and farmers.

Grower groups, meanwhile, fear that the surplus could push cane prices downward and have demanded a minimum support price of Rs525 per 40kg, along with input subsidies.

The government has opted for a phased approach, including a Rs150-per-kg price trigger, under which exports could be suspended if retail prices rise beyond the threshold.

A STRUCTURAL CHALLENGE

Pakistan’s sugar sector is also undergoing changes under the country’s $7 billion IMF programme, including plans to phase out minimum support prices and reduce state involvement in commodity storage.

The developments have intensified concerns among small farmers, who argue that deregulation could strengthen the bargaining position of large mills.

Ultimately, Pakistan’s sugar crisis is not simply about production. It is also about governance, market regulation and the distribution of financial risk. The coming crushing season will determine whether the country can finally break its decades-old cycle—or repeat it once again.