Trump could pressure NATO if Republicans lose midterms

European NATO allies are increasingly concerned that US President Donald Trump could intensify pressure on the military alliance if Republicans suffer losses in the upcoming US midterm elections, potentially reshaping Washington’s security commitments to Europe.

According to a report by US news outlet Politico, five NATO diplomats have warned that a Republican defeat in Congress could push Trump towards a tougher foreign policy approach, particularly if lawmakers place restrictions on his domestic agenda.

The diplomats fear that Trump could respond by reconsidering America’s military presence in Europe, reducing financial contributions to NATO’s common funding arrangements or taking other steps that could strain relations with European allies.

One major concern is the possible withdrawal of thousands of additional US troops stationed across Europe. A review of American military deployments on the continent is expected to be completed by December, making the future of US forces a key issue for NATO members.

The report also highlighted the possibility that Washington could restrict the NATO-backed Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), a programme designed to facilitate the purchase of weapons for Ukraine with support from allied countries.

European diplomats are also concerned that Trump could seek closer relations with Russia, potentially complicating NATO’s efforts to maintain a united position against Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine.

Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokesperson and distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), warned that Washington could link its military presence in Europe to whether European governments accept a US-backed peace agreement for Ukraine.

Such a move could place additional pressure on European governments, which remain concerned about the long-term security implications of any settlement with Russia.

However, the White House has defended Trump’s record on NATO and rejected criticism of his approach to the alliance.

Olivia Wales, a deputy White House press secretary, told Politico that Trump had done more for NATO than anyone else. She pointed to his efforts to persuade alliance members to increase defence spending and his attempts to bring an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Wales also repeated Trump’s criticism of NATO allies over their positions on the Iran conflict, highlighting continuing disagreements between Washington and European capitals.

The concerns come as European governments assess how a possible shift in the balance of power in the US Congress could affect transatlantic relations.

Although no new withdrawal or funding decisions have been announced, NATO allies are watching closely as the midterm elections approach, aware that the outcome could influence Trump’s approach to Europe’s security and the alliance’s future.