Trump-Kim summit chances fade as North Korea stays silent on talks

WASHINGTON/SEOUL,:Hopes for a meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un this year are fading, with American and South Korean officials seeing little sign that Pyongyang is prepared to resume high-level diplomacy, according to five people familiar with the matter.

Trump has expressed interest in restarting talks with Kim, whom he met three times during his first presidential term. However, North Korea has not responded to US outreach regarding a possible meeting, leaving little time to arrange a summit during upcoming regional gatherings in Asia.

The potential meeting had raised hopes of renewed efforts to address North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme and ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Yet Pyongyang’s apparent reluctance to engage has cast doubt on whether the two leaders will meet before the end of the year.

In August, Trump said he planned to meet Kim later in 2026 and suggested the North Korean leader had responded to his outreach. South Korea’s intelligence agency subsequently told lawmakers that there was a 50% chance of a meeting on the sidelines of the November 18-19 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China.

However, Trump struck a more cautious tone on Monday, playing down the possibility of a meeting at the APEC gathering or a regional summit in the Philippines.

“I get along with him very well, and I’m not sure that anybody’s asking for a meeting,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

A South Korean official familiar with the situation said Pyongyang had shown no indication that it was preparing for a summit. Seoul’s ambassador to Washington, Kang Kyung-wha, also said last week that no concrete progress had been made towards arranging talks.

Despite the uncertainty, the White House has maintained that Trump remains willing to engage with Kim.

A White House official said the president was open to talks without preconditions, adding that no meeting had been announced and that the leaders would meet when the timing was appropriate.

North Korean state media, meanwhile, has indicated that Pyongyang would attach tough conditions to any bilateral summit, potentially including sanctions relief. Kim’s powerful sister has described the relationship between the two leaders as “excellent”, but that has not translated into visible progress towards renewed negotiations.

Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, estimated that the chances of a meeting at the APEC summit were below 10%.

He suggested North Korea might be seeking a significant public gesture from Washington before agreeing to talks, arguing that recent adjustments to US-South Korean military exercises had not been enough.

China, which maintains close ties with Pyongyang, has occasionally been involved in efforts to facilitate dialogue. However, recent cordial exchanges between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have yet to produce a breakthrough on North Korea.

The stakes remain significant. The two Koreas are technically still at war, as the 1950-53 conflict ended with an armistice rather than a peace treaty. The United States maintains approximately 28,500 troops in South Korea as part of its defence commitments, while Pyongyang continues to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

South Korean officials have cited estimates from private research groups suggesting North Korea possesses between 80 and 120 nuclear warheads.

Trump’s historic meetings with Kim in 2018 and 2019 generated international attention but failed to produce a lasting agreement on denuclearisation.

US Ambassador to South Korea Michelle Steel said this week that any future summit could be arranged at short notice, potentially with only a day or two of advance notice.

For now, however, North Korea’s silence and the approaching diplomatic deadlines suggest that a Trump-Kim meeting in 2026 remains uncertain.