Warming climate may kill 9,400 more people a year in Faisalabad alone

New global study says Pakistani cities will suffer the worst rise in heat deaths by 2050

A new report on climate change and mortality has placed Pakistan among the countries facing the sharpest rise in heat related deaths by the year 2050. The report is based on projections from the Climate Impact Lab. It says Pakistan will see a net increase of 51 deaths per 100,000 people due to temperature changes. This number is close to the current death rate from stroke in the country.

The report singles out Faisalabad as a major warning sign. The city is expected to lose an additional 9,400 lives each year because of rising temperatures. This number is far higher than wealthier cities. Phoenix in the United States is projected to lose 600 additional lives a year. Madrid in Spain is projected to lose 525. Faisalabad alone will lose more than fifteen times what Phoenix loses.

The report also says Pakistani cities as a group will be hit harder than almost any other cities in the world. It states that the rise in heat deaths in these cities will exceed today’s death rates from tuberculosis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and stroke combined. Globally, more than 100,000 additional deaths are expected each year across cities affected by rising heat. One in every three of these deaths will happen in a Pakistani city.

The report explains why this is happening. A warmer climate causes more deaths from extreme heat. At the same time, it causes fewer deaths from extreme cold. Countries near the equator and in hot regions will see more deaths. Countries in cooler, northern regions will see fewer deaths. Pakistan sits in a hot region of Southwest Asia. This is why the country faces a rising death toll instead of a falling one.

The report also points to Africa’s Sahel region as facing similar dangers. Countries such as Niger and Burkina Faso are expected to see more than 60 additional deaths per 100,000 people. This is a higher rate than the current death toll from malaria across Africa. In contrast, cold countries in Scandinavia are expected to see more than 70 fewer deaths per 100,000 people, because fewer people will die from extreme cold.

Money matters greatly in this story. The report says poorer countries will suffer far more than richer ones, even when the weather itself is similar. It gives the example of Djibouti in East Africa and Kuwait in the Middle East. Both nations share a similar hot climate. But Djibouti, which is poorer, is expected to see 55 additional deaths per 100,000 people. Kuwait, which is wealthier, is expected to see only 25 additional deaths per 100,000 people. The report says wealth allows people to protect themselves through better housing, cooling technology, and healthcare. Poorer nations often lack these resources.

Overall, the report finds that poorer countries will lose about ten times more lives each year than richer countries, even though both groups have roughly equal populations. It estimates 391,000 deaths a year in lower income countries compared to 39,000 in higher income countries.

The report does offer one hopeful finding. It says economic growth alone will help reduce the death toll. By 2050, rising incomes are expected to cut the global death rate from climate change by about 9 deaths per 100,000 people. The report compares this to the effect of eliminating all suicides worldwide. This shows that economic development, alongside direct climate adaptation, can save lives.

The report urges governments and aid organisations to focus their resources on the places where they can save the most lives. It notes that even within one country, some regions suffer more than others. For example, it says the mountainous regions of Bolivia will fare much better than the lowland regions of the same country. This kind of local detail, the report argues, should guide how adaptation money gets spent.