Makkah Joint Defence Agreement and 9th Generation Warfare

A few days ago, Mr. Hakan Fidan, the Foreign Minister of Turkey, briefed the media on the MJDA. He said that the operational mechanisms will be decided at the first meeting of the joint committee comprising the foreign and defense ministers and the Chief of General Staff. He also provided an overview of possible areas of cooperation. In this context, it is high time to discuss the future orientation of the MJDA, especially areas of cooperation and investment to build a future-oriented alliance. A few areas have been identified for consideration.

First of all, the three partners must understand that the era of traditional war is rapidly becoming irrelevant. The concepts of 5^th-, 6^th-, 7^th-, and 8^th-generation warfare are evolving into new dynamics: 9th-generation warfare. Thus, Cooperation under MJDA must be based on the new elements and needs of 9^th-generation warfare, in addition to traditional areas. Now the question is, what is 9^th-generation warfare? 9th-generation warfare has a few characteristics that distinguish it from past generations of warfare.

First, 9th-generation warfare will minimize, if not eliminate, the role of humans to a greater extent. The first glimpse of this type of warfare is evident in the form of unmanned UVs. Russia-Ukraine and USA-Iran wars further reinforce this argument. However, humans are still engaged in one way or another in wars, including devising and executing plans and engaging in face-to-face combat. For example, during the application of 4th- and 5th-generation warfare in the Middle East, humans remained a constant factor in leading and executing the wars. After the bombardment of Iraq, it was humans who captured the land.

However, it is anticipated that artificial intelligence will take over this job in future wars, and future wars will be run by artificial intelligence and its tools. For example, in 9th-generation warfare, artificial intelligence-based robots can take over the role of humans. Robots can invade a country, or they can also be used in guerrilla warfare. Countries can also use robots to conduct terrorist activities. They can send the robots with an anonymous identity, and no one will be able to trace the origin. Organized crime organizations can also use them to conduct their activities, such as targeted killings.

Let’s imagine another scenario. Robots are invading a country. They fight either humans or other robots. Countries with better technology can turn robots into double-edged weapons. On the one hand, robots will be fighting machines. However, they can also equip robots with destructive explosives, such as nuclear material or other explosives. Then what would be the opponent’s choices? How will opponents fight an explosive-ridden robot? They will take over the country if they do not stop the robots. On the other hand, if they try to destroy the robots, the nuclear explosives will detonate, which can cause serious damage. The scenario would be quite scary, and countries with advanced robot and AI technology can maneuver situations in their favor.

Second, the most developed countries have recently taken war into outer space, especially the USA. The USA’s obsession with and investment in outer space have compelled other countries to follow the suit. As a result, they are investing heavily, instigating an outer space race for dominance. The race has accelerated since the establishment of the US Space Force. According to the Vice President of the USA, Mr. Pence, the force was launched with four specific objectives. First, U.S. Space Command “will establish unified command and control for our Space Force operations; ensure integration across the military; and develop the space warfighting doctrine, tactics, techniques and procedures of the future.” Second, a military astronaut corps, which Pence called “an elite group of joint warfighters specializing in the domain of space.” Third, a Space Development Agency that will research and develop new technologies and “ensure cutting-edge warfighting capabilities.” Fourth, new bureaucratic structures that will define “clear lines of responsibility and accountability to manage the process of standing up and scaling up the United States Department of the Space Force.”

The USA and its allies are enhancing cooperation to outpace others and dominate outer space. As a result, they have launched a malicious campaign against China and Russia. They are portraying China and Russia as threats to global peace and to the use of outer space to attract public attention, support, and financial resources. At the same time, they also want to hinder the advancement of other countries in space technology to maintain their hegemony in the application of space technologies for war dominance. For example, during the Gulf War of the 1990s, the USA and allied forces used space technologies to outmaneuver their opponents. Since then, the USA and its allies have been working to further improve space technology and prevent other countries from developing these technologies.

Therefore, it is anticipated that space war will be multifaceted. On the one hand, there will be a race to control or maneuver opponents’ satellites by interfering with their software. This will be done to obtain information or spread disinformation. Sending arms into space to destroy opponents’ satellites is also possible. On the other hand, some countries have developed capabilities to hit satellites from the ground. This has opened a new field of military offense.

The use of space technology for military dominance created fear in the developing world. They fear that leading countries in space technology will use space for control and interference, collect information, and dictate to other countries. For example, the USA uses navigation systems to collect data and outmaneuver others in wars.

Third, in recent times, we have observed that COVID-19 has played havoc with humanity. It has shaken the whole world. The whole world came to a standstill. Markets were closed, and the tourism industry sank. It has introduced the world to a new danger of biological war. Biological war is considered one of the most lethal forms of war, as only one person can paralyze the world. One virus can shut down the whole world with no control. In the age of communication and connectivity, the spread of a virus can surprise humans, as happened with COVID-19. Unfortunately, some powerful countries are working to create more biological weapons instead of finding solutions to such problems.

It is assumed that the USA and Russia have more sophisticated facilities. Although after the signing of the Biological Weapons Convention, both countries claim that their programs are non-offensive, there are no mechanisms to verify these claims. The debate on biological weapons reignited after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as Russia claimed that it had found biological weapons facilities in Ukraine, run by the USA. However, the USA denied any link between these facilities and the weapons industry and claimed that they were only for peaceful purposes.

Against this backdrop, the cooperation areas under the MJDA must also focus on these areas; rather, these should be a priority, in addition to traditional ones. Currently, three partners in the MJDA are lagging behind in these areas. Therefore, it is suggested that they adopt a two-tier approach to strengthen their skills and develop technology.

In the short run, they should seek partners who possess these skills and technologies and are willing to share them. Currently, the USA, the West, Russia, and China have these technologies and the skills needed to produce them. Therefore, three partners should establish linkages and cooperation mechanisms with countries that are willing to cooperate and share the technology.

In the long run, the primary goal must be to achieve self-sufficiency without dependence. This is required because dependence will not help at all. To that end, they will need to prioritize research and development (R&D) areas. The starting point should be to devise a comprehensive and forward-looking policy.

However, to build modern, future-oriented R&D programs, they will need high-quality human capital. In the short run, they will not be able to recruit enough human capital with the required skills from domestic sources. Therefore, to close the gap, they will have to seek high-quality human capital from around the world and bring it on board. Simultaneously, they will have to invest in high-quality systems to develop the required human capital. The human capital must be able to create knowledge and convert it into applications and technologies. Knowledge creation is extremely important for building an innovation base and creating new technologies. They can build cooperation with technologically advanced countries, which have better education and skill development systems in these areas. This will be a critical factor in determining the success or failure of the R&D system and policy.

In conclusion, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan must recognize that implementing MJDA and achieving self-sufficiency in 9^th-generation warfare technologies and equipment will not be easy. The USA and the West will do everything possible to hinder their efforts to venture into new technologies, including AI and space. They need to show commitment and determination to achieve their goal. They should not make any compromises to achieve self-sufficiency in 9^th-generation warfare technologies.